Short

Updated

DXY short idea London Session

We had a displacement lower yesterday afternoon after sweeping a key high 105.652,
I'm anticipating bearish prices in today's rally higher.
The logic is that any price above 105.150 is a discounted short, I don't have to get the ultimate high of the move
However, you could wait for confirmation for more insights and executions with whatever entry technique you prefer
If you are uncomfortable taking this short in the rally, you can have Sell stops at the Yellow line indicated for a continuation lower.
Annotations and partials made in the chart
I'm anticipating a risk-on environment, most asset classes should continue bullish esp GBPUSD
If I'm wrong, I'll mitigate losses accordingly and asses my bias
As usual, observe the yellow line to see how the price reacts.
You could possibly hold a runner position to New York Open or the today's close(if patient)

Note

104.999 partial

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104.720 partial

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104.814 partial

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Scaling out

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if missed the London high short, this rally is possibly another re-entry to go short before the train leaves the station

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104.895 partial

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if made entry in NY session
104.957 is the first scaling out

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0800/0830am could retrace higher and provide another short entry

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Stop loss moved to break even once the low of 104.662 is swept

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if you are using sell stops at the key level, maintain a stop loss of at least 30pips, because a potential retracement will be inbound before the continuation lower

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Stop-loss can be trailed to breakeven, positions partialed

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the sell stops entry, potentially aim for a 1-1 or 1-2 partialing positions as the delivery is continuing lower

Trade active

our Easy profit target has been hit

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Observe GBPUSD and the rally. While it may tempt you to go short. Today is not the day. This is the train, you don't want to be ahead of.
Similarly, buying DXY now will be like catching a falling knife

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if we are continuing bearish, the price should not come back to the level after hitting it.
Also, if you are looking for the break/retest pattern or support/resistance, that could be additional confluence to your trade

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for anyone trying to anticipate bottoms, observe how almost every low will be violated until the close

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for Sell stop entries, a 1-2 is achieved, stop can be trailed to breakeven and a potential runner can be left to the close

Trade closed: target reached

The final target hit left a minor position on the table for the close.
Solid win. These are the occasional home runs that mitigate any losses made during the week.

Note

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