I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the
DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in theDXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM ESTDXY 98.78 last
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the
DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the
DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST
DXY 98.78 lastTrade active
The pattern continues with the Dollar tracing out the same decline as it did back in 2016 post-election.
There is constant fears posted about the weakening dollar and given the backdrop of the "Fearful Fed" holding rates high and choking off growth in the US economy, which lowers our economic prospects going forward. The other effect of holding rates high WHILE Europe sharply cuts rates is that the prospects for higher earnings are now better in Europe and therefore increases the value of the $EURUSD. This behavior in currency is sharply against theory where "relative interest rates" usually determines the currency values. The Euro is a very low interest rate country and the US is a very high interest rate country which should mean that money flows from the Euro into the US dollar.
Clearly, the logic is that the US wants a weaker currency to drive exports, but it also shows how the world is voting on growth prospects for the USA.
Let's review this chart again in a month or two and see if it is still 'on track' like many of my other previous guesses.
All the best,
Tim
June 14, 2025 5:26PM EST
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Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $10/mo or $100/year and join me in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.