Long

DXY Minute: Mid-Term outlook

Updated

I have done a lot of DXY posts, and if you read many of them, you have read my historic observations that Risk (Indices, Equities, etc) typically tops on a DXY wave 2. Not typically the Primary, but often the Minor, or even Minute waves 2...since a deep wave 2 can be confusing as heck to anyone who believes sniffing the dollar out is essential to successful risk trade. I agree that it is, which is why understanding where I am in the count is so important to me.

I am looking for some type of deep, perhaps quick, Minor wave 2, that can give equities OMH, in blow-off fashion. The highs we have experienced so far are far too tame for my taste, and I can stay hedged until the cows come home, unless we get something good. The rumors of Dollar's death have been circulating for the better part of a decade, but still, the king has yet to be dethroned. And, I doubt that in the face of tightening regulation and increasing suspicion of the viability of bit corns as a replacement """currency""" that is going to happen, at the moment.

However, I do think that a sell-off, quick and deep, from here, would catch a lot of participants going, "BTC is going to yet another high and ding dong the dollar is dead." Such eagerness to abandon the dollar is what equity traders feed on, especially those who prefer to SELL.

Looking for a nice quick pull-back, followed by an explosion to the upside that could sustain for many months, paired with OMH in equities, followed by months of downward, corrective pressure.

Best,

Cuz

Note

A little more...

Note

3 wave move to the upside is what I see, which means a little more down. Just a little. My chart says 102.777.

Note

If anyone is trading this, or trading based on this post, this is the kind of haphazard, sloppy, un-discernible pattern that happens when the entitled think they can push and scare out of the market those who already got it right. It is sad and its an insult to all market participants. I hope they are shirtless by close, tomorrow.

Note

ES headed to 5220s. Then up. IMO

Note

At the same time, I mean, the pattern is actually messed up. It will be interesting, but I went ahead and took all NQ long profit and liquidated 30% of ES longs.

Looking again, maybe its the low 5230s...

Some people can't stand to lose...but lose they must.

Note

I will continue with this thought, because it is important...the folks driving ES up to 5255, at this point fail to realize that they are alone, and everyone else is waiting and watching, because it must reconcile lower in order to get back on track. I see a really sloppy expanding triangle for wave 4 of c of B. It didn't have to, but we got off track, which is when I get neutral. This "E" wave could go to infinity, but still would need to come back and hit a proper fib level before we advance to our actual terminal upside level.

Note

There ya go. Play stupid games...win stupid prizes.

Note

Still another low to 5235 is needed. Jimothy Rich just gets wrecked back to back. lol

Note

Ok, ES is resilient, FOR NOW, and this is a B wave, so I can let 5235 go...we did get to 5236.25. AS for dxy...I have that we are in (iv) of ((c)) of 2, and that we should conclude this structure by before noon, if not first thing at cash open. We have a little more work to the downside, and I am actually now targeting the .618 ((a))/((c)) extension. It would not make a lower low, but a higher low, and would make for a great upside catalyst. WHY? Because the structure is unclear, but could be seen as a 1-2 like my count, or a ((i))-((ii)), meaning we were further along in the count. I take that to mean, we would be some multiple of "bullish." In other words, if we cannot make another low and fully validate my count, that will be the green light for the entire market to buy dollar, and dump risk.

Personally, I am net long risk, atm, but lightly, and intend to dump 60-70% of the hedge, depending on how high we get (targeting 5316) in line with the parameters mentioned. My target for dxy is now 103.953

Note

Both the ES & DXY are an absolute mess of a pattern. I had wanted to see some type of blast off to the upside in ES to fulfill all magnitude, but really I have that with this drawn out move, irregular as it need be to be done. I won't argue timeframe either, bc as I was taught, that is irrelevant. Instead, I look to countable waves and whether they go higher or lower and look for a pattern. ES has a bearish pattern, and DXY looks mighty bullish, IMO. BOTH PATTERNS ARE IRREGULAR, no matter how we slice it. I predict a couple of deeply down days for indices, and some nice runs for DXY. I will revisit this post as it becomes relevant or predictive, but assuming DXY moves up and equities move down to a significant measure, my work HERE is done and I will prepare a new post regarding the topic. Best, Cuz

Note

I would still call both moves insignificant, and think this is the wave (iv) of ((c)). One more low to the 1.0 of the ((a))-((c)). Sub 103. (iv)) could and likely will further subdivide, where today's move up will only constitute an (a) wave.

Note

Correction...103.495 is 1.0 target. Seems to line up nicely.

Note

Still targeting 103.495. Equities were crazy today, but managed another profitable day...until the pattern turned into what I believe must be an Ending Diagonal.

In DXY, we are pretty obviously in a larger magnitude ED, and I believe we have wrapped wave (iv), BUT, and this is what I love about Diagonals...the rules only deal with the terminal points of the waves, and not, for example, here some type of Micro ((B)) wave that is now clearly poking above the top trend line. This does not matter, but anyone new to the game should/will/may think it does. It doesn't, and in fact, it could probably even exceed the top of wave (iv), ASSUMING STRUCTURE WAS OBVIOUS, without breaking the pattern, since these are corrective moves and the extension would technically be a ((B)) wave, which can go higher or lower than origination, as may be the case. I have gone ahead and done some measurements that say this little ((B)) could actually go up to 104.20, and that would be ideal. In my current count, this already happened in our wave (ii), and it should/could cause the dump in equity futures to fix the currently untradable, undiscernable mess. We need ES to overlap with 5244.25, which would confirm we are in an ED and give the first clue in days as to what magnitude we are tracking. I expect this, hope it happens, because otherwise, the pattern is broken and who knows from here...I think it will. My guess is, ES dumps hard and quick as DXY pokes a couple pips above its immediately last high, only to plunge swiftly to 104.025 to complete i of (v) of ((c)) of 2.

Note

Now, that is significant! and, its hitting extensions, and looking for Minute Wave ((ii)), imminently.

Note

Held off on this update, but it looks like Minute ((ii)) should last through the weekend. 104.64-104.10 is where it should go using our previous ((a)) from the beginning of our Minor 2 as the template. Again, like I have said and one of the themes of this post, Risk tops on DXY waves 2, and even ((ii))...so I am not ruling that out. It has been a nearly stellar 4 days of trading for me, and closed both shorts and longs in MNQ today for profit. I grabbed another ES long at the bottom to go full hedge on my +/- 2.5 ES position, and will be looking for a blast upward as we get to the bottom of Minute ((ii)) in order to take off some longs. I will not close anymore shorts, here to go net long, because based on the accuracy of this post and today's confirmational price action, I am more convinced that Risk will ultimately fall while DXY goes up.

Let's observe DXY for the next 2 - 3 trading sessions for further confirmation.

Best,
Cuz

Note

I think Minute ((i))-((ii)) is done...and with it, the indices. Been nice knowing you, but its time to receed. I believe, DXY has already begun its Minuette (i) and should be completing (ii), any time, now. Extensions were met, then breached, and therefore, I must move on. DXY flys again!

Note

Better, yet, this is more likely subminuette i of Minuette (i). Buckle up.

Note

I will say it, again. Nothing drives equity lovers crazy like a DXY wave 2...But nothing breaks their hearts like a DXY wave 3.

Note

DXY should pullback here, not too far, but maybe 105.888 for a Minuette (iv). Looking for some sort of correction to the upside in the indices after this morning of down side. Probably into the 5230s, maybe 5240s? It looks like ES is in one of those deceptive diagonals, and if so, its most likely "leading," which means it should correct to where it originated.

DXY is tracking, though. Right on schedule.

Note

Wow. Was I wrong? or what...so, here is another spec...bet it turns out what everyone, INCLUDING ME, has been reading as a wave 4 TURNS OUT TO BE A 2! and we retrace deeper than expected, but resume impulsivity by Monday...Best

Note

Well, this guy is still tracking, and to clear up confusion, about that 2 or 4 thing, I am counting that as a subminuette 4, so smaller magnitude than originally thought, and what we saw today, completing, now, is an ending diagonal (ED) to complete Minuete (i). I am looking for a Minuette 2 to begin, soon, and breach the bottom of the Subminuette iv we ended last week discussing and that I mentioned in this comment, at about 105.839. Should not need much more than that to provide plenty clarity. If you are trading it, you know ES is super sensitive at the moment to DXY moves, so it helps to keep your chart up. I wasn't, today, and rode a couple contracts down that black diamond, but I have recovered the initial loss with hedge profit down here and added a few, so expecting to ride this next C wave back up to the Break Even Zone and GTFO. Its always when I want a bigger B wave that I get smashed. Don't trade B waves is what my mentor taught me, and today was my last (yea right, I just traded one) but seriously, be ready to bail if you do. They are highly unpredictable.

Note

Way ES is acting, assuming we are not headed directly lower, it looks like this may not be the last C wave of this move, if proper fib levels have anything to do with it. Could mean this Minuette ii plays out into the morning, or right up until the open. That would be ideal.

Note

Screaming Irregular B. I don't buy a leading diagonal in an impulse of this magnitude. Still looking for a breach of 105.839, probably slight, but that is what it will take to get buyers back in on DXY...CLARITY. For now, unless I have a clear, short-term trade strategy, I am unwinding positions and observing.

Note

Quick observation: Pattern looks much better/more complete, this morning, but we have not hit ideal levels. However, pattern rules and levels are secondary in Elliot Wave, so I am scaling in short on ES and holding my bucks.

Note

Ok, so it looks like we will get a breach. Looked at some more data and ended up closing shorts and longing it at the last low. Some are saying we are going back up, and I can see that based on the overall ES/NQ patterns. Dumpling longs for a miniscule B, but very lightly, want to get some confirmation and see what does DXY through the week.

Note

Sorry to bounce around, but its the only way to win in this market...things change, so do I...SO, I dumped index longs at the next/last high peak, thinking it was the first A wave, but after looking at NQ and analyzing fib extensions for the A-B off the top, and the C wave we are working on, now, AND considering input from my team, I believe we are working on the "one more low" of this first leg down...being the first A of the larger pattern. Which magnitude, exactly, I cannot say, because I have it as Minute ((a)) in NQ, but as subminuette a in ES. None the less, they don't have to follow the same pattern at the same magnitude at all times, so I am comfortable with either, in either case. What I see is that the last leg of the (I will use the NQ, since it is better developed, pattern-wise) Minute ((a)), meaning the Minuette (c), and more specifically, the Subminuette v, looks to be developed as an Ending Diagonal, which would need one more 3 wave move...Micro ((A))((B))((C)) to complete. I think we got the ((A)), to day, EOD, and working on our ((B)), as I write this, and what we should see over night is a Submicro motive wave to take us to around 17437. I have covered some MNQ longs I rolled into EOD with an NQ Sept outright and one additional MNQ Sept contract. My plan is to watch it overnight, and when we get to the target area, start buying MNQ to at least hedge, if not going long, in size (for me) with what I didn't spend on taxes and satisfying my wife lol. As far as DXY goes, and how it plays here, I see the level I have been discussing as HIGHLY GUARDED, for whatever reason, which makes me think, and in line with my Index counts for ES and NQ, that a breach of that level will not be slight, but may trigger a deeper correction, even if only of Minuette Magnitude, which could make for a nice ((b)) wave of Minute degree in the NQ, for example. That theory ties all of my counts together, so I am going with that. I have removed all of my year's profit from my account and have been building a medium risk portfolio of stocks in my holding account. My plan is to catch the first leg up out of whatever bottom we strike in the next day or 2 and probably, again, dump longs and observe a b- wave back down to see if we have truly bottomed for the time being. I believe there are great opportunities, as well, in some particular individual stocks, and going long actual stocks after shorting equity futures has always been a better play for me, so I am going with that strategy. Hopefully tomorrow morning plays out as discussed, which would mean that DXY should move up, all night.

Hope this post has been helpful to everyone as far as explaining my approach. Since posting, I turned a profit of 22,500 on a trading account that averages about 16k of buying power. TBH, this is my biggest success since starting trading, and I am glad you all shared it with me, its made updates much easier and really the thing has turned into a trading journal for me while I navigate. Thanks to all, and best! Will update in the morning, unless things get interesting overnight.

Note

NQ just hit got into its 5 of (C) wave .618/1.0 extension box, which COULD conclude the ((B)) wave I mentioned. Let's observe, and see if we start a ((C)) wave down.

Note

Reading this differently, yet again...but got to keep adapting. Looks like DXY wants to settle for a slight breach, perhaps, then rip up in a Subminuette i, which would get us OML in equities, followed by a retrace higher as soon as it sells off in ii. Not sure how this plays for any type of extended ((B)), but then again, b-waves are imposters, (Prechter) so there is no telling or guessing what it "Should" look like. Case in point, look at this ((B)) in equities, now. Looked like a diagonal, now getting impulsive in its maturity. Tough to read, sometimes...i.e. the market hates it when we are right. The people who put this stuff on, make it, as it were...think the money is all theirs. Problem is, they have been derelict and have unleashed the fury of free people around the world, who know that they must reclaim power over their lives, and therefore, must take back the money. A little editorial, here, but its worth saying. Don't let them fool you into thinking you have not a chance. They were stupid enough to be derelict in their stewardship of the great privilege of dealing with the stuff most of us would rather not...they are stupid enough to beat at their own game...make no mistake.

Minimum downside target is 17485.50-17487.75...anything less fails to complete the pattern. If trading this, look for immense turbulence on the approach OR a straight shot down and straight back up.

Note

We have a slight breach. Could do one more, but looking for DXY to soar, overnight. If I am any indication, up, paid up, paid ahead, getting paid, owed more than I owe...the people who really need dollars should be scrambling overnight to find them, and they won't find them in my account. Tonight, we start the reconciliation process.

Note

fyi ON the minute chart in NQ, we have 5 new local highs ALL with negative divergence. Some might call this "life support." Hey, clowns, your eyes are crooked. lol

Note

I am not buying this as anything but a Subminuette b, as part of our Minuette wave (ii) correction. This price action has totally lacked clear structure, and this thing looks like an IMPOSTER! Trying to be an impulse, but totally overlapping and not reaching proper extensions. Leading diagonals are very rare and I only use them on the smallest of timeframes, like minute to minute in a trading chart, but I don't see any reason to bet on it when we are looking for proper magnitude. It is a b until proven otherwise. confirmation comes with a breach of last night's slight breach of our key level at 105.839. A deeper correction could be brewing, and would give Indices a chance to retrace in Minute ((b)).

Note

Looks like its trying to reach up and hit those extensions. We may be bottoming in equity futures, depending on the outcome here, among other things. Right now getting a reading just a quarter shy of NQ 1.618. If we tag it exactly, that will shed light on the rest of our correction. Holding net long NQ, fully hedged ES. Fingers crossed! lol. smh.

Note

Alright, went EVEN LOWER...Scary...17437.25. ES was lagging but looks like 5027ish, which was around where I wanted to see. Since we did not hit fibs precisely, we must assume that this leg of the correction will only be a subdivision of the primary A-wave. ("primary," as in, main, not the primary magnitude) Could also mean I am way off and we just crash. Guess we shall see. Watching DXY.

Note

Finally, we breach 106.234, NOW we should not exceed 106.299 prior to a 3 wave retrace of some magnitude. If we do...b wave.

Note

DXY should DUMP, to low 105s. NQ has also now breached the last possible 1.618 after starting in the most overlapping pattern ever seen. Don't be afraid, but do be concerned about those who operate these markets. WOW. Terrorists. :)

Note

BTW we now have positive divergence on the last two ES lows. Looks like we are ready to head back up in a Minute ((b)). AGAIN...WOW.

Note

After further review, I think equities have another low, sometime in the next session or two, but DXY could bounce around in this area in the meantime. I have revised my count in DXY to call the last run up all of Minute ((i)), and so what we see now is an already drawn out and complex Minute ((ii)). I do not believe we have begun Minuette (i), mainly because of the sloppy, overlapping price action we got last Thursday that I ultimately called a b wave or some subdivision thereof.

We are sort of again back to the main theme of my DXY analysis, which is how hard equities seem to rally when DXY waves 2 happen to the downside. I think that is at play here, if we are to see an upside correction in equities.

On an important side note, I can see where the counts of both DXY and US equity indices are lining up, and we very well may be in the early stages of "the big one," which would be a super-cycle level correction that could subdue US indices for many moons. Keep that in mind, if trading them, and stay safe. Best, Cuz

Note

About to LAUNCH. Thank you to Kev911 for all the help on this post. The man knows his stuff and all business. See you on the flip side.
-Cuz

Note

One more dump to low 105s to complete the diagonal and give us a true 5th wave. Should be a good loading zone.

Note

I guess I should say one more exhaustingly slow trickle to low 105s...Be patient. Might be around noon before it gets there.

Note

105.045-.041 is the ONLY target area, at this point. Bucks for cheap, if you can wait...

Note

105.113 down to 105.045/.041. Shrinking, but it MUST happen by noon CST. Patience.

Note

Got to happen by 10:30am cst. Used to, they wanted to speed it up, now all they can do is stall. Give it up, rascals!

Note

Pulished a new short term idea, which is always more of a crap shoot. It sort of validated specifically, but generally, nothing has changed, and we are getting nothing but positive signs of continuation. One of these being the apparent weakness in equity futures, where at the open on the little DXY gap down, we saw a lower high on the same strength in the minute chart (although this fact has since been obfuscated...) Nonetheless, I am looking for DXY to confirm its impulsivity with a 5th wave to proper extensions right above the last high, and for Equities to get moving to the downside, ideally in impulsive fashion, as opposed to that nasty diagonal we got for the subminuette c wave last couple weeks. Check out the new idea, it has some particulars about why this correction has been so complex, and I added a comment about the ultimate labeling used to count it.

Note

There is simply nothing left for dollar, down here. Go on up with the spirit in the sky...you will have plenty to do, there.

Note

Well, we have the slightest impulsivity in NQ, although not properly extended. Let's see if the market gets a clue as to what is about to transpire. Stubborn people, and I am one of them, but when dollar gets loose, watch out future lovers...might want to hit the bench. lol

Note

Ok, finally, DXY is making sense. I look for this to continue until we have a clean 5 wave impulse sequence to the downside.

ALSO, VERY IMPORTANT...I am personally considering this an ENDING DIAGONAL, at this point, and the jury is still out on whether we have completed our 3rd 3 wave move of the larger pattern, or whether we have only completed the Minor A of that 3rd wave. The depth of the correction we have been tracking should give us the answers.

Note

105.073 should hold.

Note

If not...104.928.

Note

Will she EVER make it?

Note

Sell-off, just short of new low?? Sell risk in green box?? IDK...

CuzDelux

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.