2025/02/08 - 6th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - DXY Long Term Bullish, Short-Term Bearish Reversal?
“since long-term "golden cross" the trend seems to be coming to an end!
are the bulls just taking a breath? or is this the start of a trend reversal?”
In a week in which new uncertainties threaten to grip global financial markets, our common European currency, the euro
EXY , may be facing a critical collapse. US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose comprehensive tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as well as other global goods has already had a noticeable impact on the currency markets. The future looks bleak for our European common currency. Experts warn that this could be just the beginning. Although the 
EURUSD exchange rate recovered in the first week after its inauguration, it immediately fell again in the last two weeks. after it became clear to traders and/or investors that Trump is actually trying to implement what he promised his US voters, his US taxpayers & US consumers, and all US Americans. So that a fall below 1.00 in the EURUSD price action should only be a matter of time - even if hardly anyone in public unintentionally dares to say it. Anyway, I don't know either! But last week I also read for the first time that some financial analysts also agree that risks to the price action of the EURUSD exchange rate could continue to increase in the coming days. And Goldman Sachs also expects the US dollar to break parity with the euro. UBS also expressed skepticism about the common currency's near future, pointing out that the upcoming German elections and a possible escalation of the trade conflict with the US increase the risk for theEURUSD . Due to the political uncertainties and US customs measures, the all-clear cannot be given for the common currency, according to the major Swiss bank. ING Bank also sees stormy times ahead for the eurozone, particularly due to possible trade conflicts with the USA, which have already weighed on the fourth quarter of 2024. According to analysts, Trump's tariff announcements could hit the euro zone hard, as the USA is the second largest market for EU steel exports. Comprehensive tariffs against additional goods from the EU could follow “very soon,” Trump warned last week.Something else fundamental! I don't know what you're thinking about Trump basically, but he has only been in office for 3 full calendar weeks - and it feels like it's been three months! Or? Last week, Bernd Förtsch, editor of the German weekly magazine “Der Aktionär” summed up the Trump method briefly and succinctly in his commentary. Be sure to read it - because the world will not fail tomorrow because of Trump. On the contrary, volatility on the financial market is increasing. And everybody is feeling full lively around him, while his present. I don't know if this is statistically proven? But it feels like there's more going on with Trump than without him!
“We need to maintain law and order. We need to maintain peace in the world. We need to protect the environment. We need to have some degree of social justice, equality of opportunity. The markets are not designed to take care of those needs. That's a political process. And the market fundamentalists have managed to reduce providing those public goods.”
George Soros
109.040 : 2025/02/07 - BB Upper 020 hl/2
108.297 : 2025/02/07 - BB Basis 020 hl/2
108.096 : 2025/02/07 - last price action
107.736 : 2025/02/07 - BB Lower 020 hl/2
105.827 : 2025/02/07 - 100 SMA hl/2
104.387 : 2025/02/07 - 200 SMA hl/2
The first thing that stands out is that since the "Golden Cross" on Wednesday, January 15, 2025, when the
DXY closed at 109.079 points, we have been moving more or less in a sideways trend. What is strikingly independent of the indicators is, in addition to the high on Monday, January 13th, 2025 with 110.176 points, also last Monday, February 3rd, 2025! Why? Because on this trading day the price action of the DXY was 1.43% (from the daily low to the daily high) - it was the day when Trump began to implement his campaign promise to impose US tariffs. Since then, traders and/or investors have acted or reacted with skepticism or even indecision when I look at the price action. And/Or but has everything already been discounted, i.e. anticipated? Or is too much being read into it? I don't know! But what I do know is that since January 20, 2025, i.e. since the day Donald J Trump was inaugurated, the price action in the DXY had fallen below the Bollinger Bands for the first time - since weeks and/or months. And what does that tell us? Traders and/or investors have taken a breather from the last 20 trading days (this is how the BBs are set). And what happens next? I don't know, again! Either the last 20 days were just a breather for the bulls? Or the beginning of the Bears' takeover? So something like a trend reversal. Which would confirm a price action below the Bollinger bands in the coming calendar week. But I don't think so. Because the “Golden Cross” (i.e. the emergence of the 100 SMA from the bottom to the top of the 200 SMA) is always good evidence that something (is not) changing in the case of long-term traders and/or investors. Which is why I still tend to expect a slightly stronger DXY in the medium and long term - also due to Trump's US tariff policy. As long as the bears don't send the price action below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands for the time being. And that over a longer period of time. But more about that every day as the week progresses.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.