Careful shorting the Dollar's frosty tips above the range
Updated
Fundamental Analysis
My position remains bearish for the year since NFP and the Fed's remarks about the economy were not optimistic last week to close a retracement week to the downside. Debt yields soaring because more stimulus is to be passed. Bond yields spiked only to get rejected again as well. Tech rallied on Fridays trading session while precious metals slipped and bitcoin struggles to hold above $45,000. Sentiment remains bearish across the board for the dollar, and with this weekend being a holiday weekend(take profit weekend) sending a reminder of the bearish momentum above. The newer ATH's of the indexes were able to carry the dollar until the end of the week, only proving that we are in more of a bubble than ever.
Technical Analysis
After catching rising support at $90.25 for the whole week, the holiday weekend triggered price to sell-off above the range. at the highs of the range, and at the last bearish order block from the last run down into our new range. Low volume Friday allowed for this Wyckoff distribution to complete closing the week low.
We could still see possible bullish continuation patterns above the range so you may want to wait for more confirmation or a stronger bear pattern confirmation if you are not in any moves from last week against the dollar. The fact that price has created a perfect M pattern and was not able to close above $90.5 gives me confidence in shorts this coming London NY sessions possibly at $90.75 $90.77 Fibonacci level. Just be aware we could see one more bearish failure pattern from last weeks run and they could trap bears to complete the run up to $91 again since we were not able to complete the pendulum swing down to $90, creating more rising support above $90.25. If the bears are able to hold this run down, then we can mark up the new high and low of the channel and set orders for the test off the new channel. Remember do not get married to any direction, otherwise you will not be able to see the reversal signs that you should be paying attention to.
Like, comment, and follow for more future content like this :)
My position remains bearish for the year since NFP and the Fed's remarks about the economy were not optimistic last week to close a retracement week to the downside. Debt yields soaring because more stimulus is to be passed. Bond yields spiked only to get rejected again as well. Tech rallied on Fridays trading session while precious metals slipped and bitcoin struggles to hold above $45,000. Sentiment remains bearish across the board for the dollar, and with this weekend being a holiday weekend(take profit weekend) sending a reminder of the bearish momentum above. The newer ATH's of the indexes were able to carry the dollar until the end of the week, only proving that we are in more of a bubble than ever.
Technical Analysis
After catching rising support at $90.25 for the whole week, the holiday weekend triggered price to sell-off above the range. at the highs of the range, and at the last bearish order block from the last run down into our new range. Low volume Friday allowed for this Wyckoff distribution to complete closing the week low.
We could still see possible bullish continuation patterns above the range so you may want to wait for more confirmation or a stronger bear pattern confirmation if you are not in any moves from last week against the dollar. The fact that price has created a perfect M pattern and was not able to close above $90.5 gives me confidence in shorts this coming London NY sessions possibly at $90.75 $90.77 Fibonacci level. Just be aware we could see one more bearish failure pattern from last weeks run and they could trap bears to complete the run up to $91 again since we were not able to complete the pendulum swing down to $90, creating more rising support above $90.25. If the bears are able to hold this run down, then we can mark up the new high and low of the channel and set orders for the test off the new channel. Remember do not get married to any direction, otherwise you will not be able to see the reversal signs that you should be paying attention to.
Like, comment, and follow for more future content like this :)
Note
Shorts at $90.435 was perfect entry for Monday's trading session
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.