Long

Updated

DXY

USD is ready to push after Federal Reserve has decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. Put attenction on EUR/USD and GBP/USD these will have difficult days

Note

After having taken off the flight as in the previous chart, it is now possible to draw a price movement channel. A negative Friday is coming for the US dollar. In the next hour I think it will rise again to touch the top of the canal and then go down and open the way for a small recovery for EUR / USD and GBP / USD that will recover, in the day tomorrow, some of the road lost in the days past.

Note

As I thought the price is heading towards the top, once reached quota 96.89 / 96.90 the price will be rejected.

I will open a short postion when it will reach 96.88 TP 96.63 SL 96.96

Note

As I had imagined in the previous graphs, the price rose again to touch 96.89 and then be rejected.
Now the price could go up or complete the movement and go down to about 96.65.

As I said I opened short position at 96.88 SL 96.96 TP 96.65.

it was like a prediction :D let's look at how it ends

Trade closed: stop reached

It broke key level, SL reached.

Note

As highlighted in the last graph, DXY has reached and surpassed a key level. The next days will be important in which we could know if the dollar will continue in its exhausting run until the end of the current year or if it starts to slow down a bit.
It is possible to notice on the daily frame how this level has been important also in the past:

If we analyze how the price has moved in 2018 we can see something interesting.
the price is now in a positive channel and for the third time in a few months has reached the key level.

When it reached it for the first time in mid-August, the price was rejected, going down for more than a month. Until 20 September when the price began to rise and move in the channel in which it is still present, until it touches the key level at the end of October, the price was rejected again but only for a week, until it touched the bottom of the channel from which it left again, reaching yesterday to touch the key level for the third time.

At this point there are more possibilities:

1 the price will be rejected just a little (without crossing the channel) and then consistently and definitively exceed the price;

2 the price will already stabilize above the level;

3 the price will be rejected heavily entering a negative trend for at least a few weeks, this is the most remote possibility.

and what do you think? does someone else share the idea or do you have a different one? leave me your thought

Note

After 4 positive days it seems that the time has come for a slight pullback. I think that maximum will go down in zone 96.90 without going down below the key level and then start again.
Pound and Euro will then be able to take a little breath.

Note

Pullback started, consequently a retracement for Euro and Pound. Certainly it is still early to say, we are still halfway through the day, we wait for the end of the day for confirmation.

Note

Here it is, it went exactly as I thought.
I sold the dollar against the Euro and Pound that have resumed a bit 'of ground, I hope someone else may have been inspired by my reading and made some money;)

Note

Good evening guys, here's a mid-week update. The price is moving exactly as planned and slowly it is reaching the lower part of the canal. Euro and Pound have been able to recover a little 'price and these were good days to trade.
I wait for the pullback to end and then sell Euro and Pound on the restart.

Note

Price is going down as right, near to reach the bottom of channel.
I think it will go like this, be ready to sell the Eur / Usd pair (the price of the pair is already at an excellent selling point).

Note

Here we go.
The price has touched the bottom of the channel and it SEEMS restarted, I say it seems because the day is not over yet, but for now it seems to confirm the trend, we await the end of the day to draw conclusions.

Note

Yeah! it's going exactly as i planned, bad week for Eur/Usd is coming, new lows in sight!

Note

Hello, this week is over, week in which we could see that the uptrend of the Dollar is in extension. After Thanksgiving it was a very good Friday and I think this climb will continue throughout the next week.

Note

I think that the next new maximum will be around 98.50, consequently new minimums foreseen for the Eur / Usd pair.

Note

After having broken down as expected, the price suffered a collapse due to negative economic news released on November 28th (forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/11/28/will-the-fed-crash-the-market-again-after-powell-speech/

But today the price has started again after the Fed has released positive news for investors, in any case it is good to wait until December 5th when Fed Chairman Powell will pronounce once again.

I think that until this date the price will not start with decision, but it will move up and down always remaining around the bottom of the channel.

Tell me what you think

Lollo2693

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

Lollo2693