Short

U.S Dollar Seasonal Pullback

Updated

U.S Dollar Index marked on the weekly chart

The U.S Dollar has been on a tear the past year, almost breaking old highs from 2001. However, DXY has chosen to respect its historical seasonality with the pullback in recent weeks which I believe will continue further before ultimately re-aligning with the longer term bullish narrative.

Confluences

Seasonality: Dollar tends to begin a downtrend in the second half of November.
Respected Monthly bearish order block at ~114.00. This is an area prior to the large bear trend formed in 2001.
Market Structure Shift (MSS) by breaking the swing low at ~110.00.
Most recent weekly candle disrespected a weekly imbalance by closing through it with enormous force (i.e support broken)
Bullish order block with its mean threshold within an imbalance resides below.
Lots of liquidity resting above the imbalance and order block, ripe for the taking.

Not long ago I would have expected Dollar to zoom past 120.00, but recent price behavior has shown that a cooling off is at play. The time for Dollar all-time highs will come, but for now I am bearish.

Dollar historical seasonality details: https://charts.equityclock.com/us-dollar-index-futures-seasonal-chart

Trade closed: target reached

DXY has reached my main target. It honestly looks like it's interested in 100

Sans_Sheriff

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