Long

EDITAS bottoming in process, turnaround soon, target min ~22 USD

Updated

EDITAS could be in the bottoming process, I am watching it for a few years now.
We have a falling broadening wedge, on which we had a breakout already. This is part of a bigger falling wedge (blue).

It is techincally possible, we had put in the lows at 6.35 as a wave 5 (as an ending diagonal), which is part of wave V as a last wave, of the biggest Wave (II). This would indicate, for quiet a few years we have the lows.

Now, it is possible (~20%) that the wave(II) can extend, and that currently what we are forming is just a wave(IV) as a bigger ABC correction, but we should NOT ignore this good opportunity.

In the primary scenarion (bottom is in place): we already had a 5 count up (sorry for the inconsistency in the colors and the letterd counts) as a diagonal, completing the orange wave I (or wave A) up, and now, alongside with the news that shares are issued, we are having the orange wave II as an abc pullback. Due to the impulsiveness, this is certanly an a wave down, and it does not seem finished yet. It will be followed by a b wave up, and then agan a c wave down.
I have marked the turnaround/support boxes.

Possibly, with the abc we could form a head and shoulders (but target wont be reached). We would like to have the turnaround optimally in the green box. It could have a deeper pullback, so chances are, it will drop to the orange box. (I am scaling in)
Under the orange box is what I call the "danger" zone; it COULD still turn around, but more often than not, it is just not playing out, and being extremely risky, signaling, that possibly new lows are coming

I have already made 3 positions opened between 8-9 USD from previous months (accumulation)

Strong support (which will be my scale in zones for further accumulation):
~8.80
~8.40
~7.75

I am also swing trading it(several days->weeks, shorting/buying) on a short frame based on elliott counts/luxalgo/support zones/MA's. (i.e.: if a wave seems done, put in a hedged long for 3 counts up for b wave, then short it down hedged till .618 OR 5 counts down)

On the daily:
RSI is cooling down from overbought levels, and MACD possibly diverging (already converged)
200 day MA is rejecting us,180 as well.
15day SMA, 21day EMA, 9day SMA rejected us.
50/52 day SMA is below us, but with the bottoming/pullback likely we will sip below that (but converging upwards)

On the weekly:
we getting rejected for a while on the 9.85 levels, indicating a pullback for many weeks now (again, my primary scenario it wants just a wave 2 pullback in)
RSI is pulling back, but have not diverged with the trendline, and possibly will not, i expect to provide support
MACD is coming up nicely to the base level, but deccelerating.

Invalidation for the setup is the brushed yellow line.

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So far I am waiting a clear ABC structure to the downside. I would not rule it out, that we are still in the "A" wave down, since there is no clear structural break for the B wave, and the one I have marked is very shallow. It is also possible, we are just started to create to B wave

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Possibly we have a bottoming process which would suggest the orange wave II is in. The only thing I dont like is time-wise the wave II is too short.

Anyway, now I can count a 1-2 , and a smaller 1-2, and possibly now an even smaller 1-2 is forming; it could be valid as long as we do not drop now below 8.10 USD. This assumes, that we have just started the big orange wave III to the upside with all theese 1-2 formations (the third one is not finished yet), and if it is correct, price should climb soon very rapidly to the upside in an impulsive way.

Of course this is not 100%, remember, my concern is that the dropdown meets the criteria of pullback deepness, it is very short time-wise, so it can happen that we drop further, and that this is in fact just the red b wave up. Key price level is 8.10 to watch!!!

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Based on today sellof and pre/aftermarket movements the wavecounts cannot work out anymore, therefore I am revising it.

Pls note: I am still bullish on EDIT. It is just take a longer time to form the orange wave (II bottom). Also, based on the price action the corrent wave II is a big ABC correction, which I "guess" will be a flat pattern or a running flat, preatty much maxing out possibly the ranges.

We already have the big A wave down. Now we are in the B wave "up", which consist also an ABC pattern, where the A wave ready (correction), the B wave down either ready, or will be ready soon as an a-b-c-d-e expanding flat (which could put in one more zigzag so to expand into an a-b-c-d-e-f-g), which will be followed by a C wave up as a 5 wave "kind of impulsive" movement.

Once it is topping, then we coming down again in a big C wave down to around possibly to the 7.80-7.40 levels, which will finish the orange wave 2.

I have added just in case resistance box for the overall B wave up. Due to the characteristic, I believe it will shoot to at least to the upper resistance level, maaaaybe even above that a little.

The total invalidation level for the bull case (remember, this is still the bull case, but it gonna take longer to form) is still the yellow line under.

Trade active

Small position added @ 8.50

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Mid size position added @ 8.10

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green wave 1 to the upside is in (as a part of red wave c, of the yellow circled big B to the upside, of being the orange wave II to the downside).
I think we are in the middle of the green wave 2 pullback now as an abc, and that we are started to form the c wave to complete it.
Support box adjusted for that. If we do NOT pullback at least to 0.5 fib level (~8.30-8.34 leve), that will indicite the green wave 1 possibly not yet finished to the upside.

All in all the 8.14 price level now should HOLD till we go up first in 5 counts.

15/9 day MA's now below us, providing support.
21 day EMA so far rejected us.
50-52, 180day, 200 day MA's all above us, probably will be heavyer resistances as we will move up.
RSI converged AND diverged as well, trying to curve to the upside slowly.
MACD have just turned positive, but still very weak.

Weekly selloff slowed down, MACD will try to diverge back to the upside momentum again soon (need 1-2 weeks probably)
RSI trying to come back above the trendline.

Remember! I believe this is going to be a more proper B wave up within the orange wave II pullback, before putting in a C wave down, probably touching the previous low, or shooting under a bit. Still, this is part of the bottoming process according to this wavecounts.

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Since we have so far only a 3 wave move up, it is possible we are going to move in 3 waves, so I left the support box in the chart. How would it look like (rouhgly)? Pls check below (of course just for display purposes, price levels not accurate!!!).

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So far I dont really like whats happening... I have closed my positions so far and waiting for more clearance.
Price preatty much doing more or less sideways movement, and in a c wave up this should be somewhat impulsive.
Support box still valid, I have just moved the invlaidation level a bit more to the downside, it might happen that later the yellow circle wave c down would pull deeper. So just in case...

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Either we gonna get a very short yellow circle B wave up, and it is finished, OR the red c wave up consisting the 5 green waves moving also in abc pattern.
Either way, the small support box is relevant, we should NOT drop below 0.786 fib level, invalidation at red b wave bottom (~7.99 USD).

For me the the local move down does not seems finished, I would expect one more low.

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Nothing major, I still expect a bit deeper pullback to the small orange support box (to finish green wave2)

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I have adjusted the counts, it seems the overall red b wave gonna be a triangle (abcde). So far it is not confirmed, but the current price action suggests that. The red c wave still can be an impulse to the upside, completing the overall big yellow circle B wave up.

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No major update so far; we are still forming the red (b) wave, practicly moving sideways so far. The only thing, it is not a symmetrical triangle but a bit of a wedge pattern, meaning a red (b) wave is a bit more complex then I initially assumed. Support and resistance boxes still in effect.

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Breakout happened, we possibly started the c wave up, containing 5 waves. I assume we are in the green wave 1, and now putting in the wave 2 pullback. Support area boxes added.

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Unfortunately this move is not "impulsive", so it is getting suspicious again. I would not rule out, that we gonna have the red (c) wave up also as a diagonal, moving in 3 counts instead of impusliveness. This would allow choppyness, abc-abc-abc-abc-abc structures, and will be hard to identify. Anyway the support box still valid for the green wave 2. If we drop below ~8.60 comfortably, then something else is going on possibly and we have to dismiss and rework again our scenario.

Possibly then we are either dealing with a bigger diagonal, and we have finished the red wave (a) just nowm abd wukk gave a deeper pullback maybe to 8-8.20 USD levels, and we then start to move up again in a choppy way

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Okay, so we have made a new low compared to the previous swing low, this cannot be already the c wave up containing 5 waves.

What possibly going on, buyers/sellers resetting the red (b) wave down, meaning, we have never finished that, and sitll ongoing; having only an overshooting action as yellow small b wave, and now going down to finish the red (b) wave down.

This means, unfortunately, the previous small support box coming into effect. I have adjusted the box.

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Price action reacted very nicely on the 0.618 (golden ratio) fib level, seemingly we are putting in 5 waves up, which could indicate, that the green wave 1 finally starting. Be aware, it will be followed by a green wave 2 pullback, which should consist 3 wave pullback. I will wait for that.

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Seemingly we are in the green wave 2, with an abc, currently being in the c wave. Price should not fall below 8.48, otherwise it will become unreliable, and chances are it will break down again, likely resetting the red (b) wave bottom, and we need to start over.

We do have 5 waves up, and so far 3 waves down, probably finishing the 3rd wave.

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We are resetting again, big support box taken back into effect...

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So far we are still moving in a corrective sideways/channel, as I mentioned the last time I believe we are just dealing with a high b wave, and seemingly moving down in a diagonal for a c wave, in a quiet ugly way.

So what we are waiting is a 5 wave move to the upside, followed by a 3 count pullback. That has not happened so far. The orange fib support box is still in effect, price SHOULD turn around latest in that area.

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Small update:
this is one ugly correction; best case we are having now a diagonal as a green wave 1. It is unreliable though, very choppy, very corrective structure, so either that, OR we have not finished the downside still (red (b) wave down). Both are possible, red (b) still in the making is more probable actually. Support zones added...

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Seems the bigger c wave really unfolding (must hold the previous swing low), as a bigger diagonal. Likely therefore the green wave 1 probably is in, support area adjusted. Be prepared though it will be possibly very choppy, overlapping and slow-mo price actions, so I wouldn't neccessarly recommend it for trading... Or one must be extremely patient and extremely good at risk management.

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Short update:
Sell volume is very big, short sellers took control, therefore the red (b) wave is resetting again....

With this move, it is likely it will reset one more time, unless it is morphing to a WXY, which is also possible. The challenge is that we dipped below the 0.786 level. So far the setup is not invalidated, but this is an early warning, that we might not get a bigger wave up correction, but go down directly to finish off the big c wave.

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Early warning worked perfectly signaling it will likely break down. In fact now the whole I-II setup is getting heavily challenged.

Watch for the 6.84 level, if we drop below that, then likely the whole count going to fail in its current format, and then likel one more or 2 more swing lows (bigger ones) are coming, but it is too early to tell.

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Setup invalidated, one or two more bigger swing low likely coming, possibly to 3-5 USD levels

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One probable scenario:

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Updated the charts:
White: one more bigger low arriving as part of the bottoming process. What we are delaing with is an "undershooting b wave" which can be valid yes.

Orange: the lows are in, in that case it should hold the fib support area, and not to drop comfortably and consistently below the 0.786 level.
Currently it is about 50-50%.

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If the 0.887 fib level breaks , chances growing rapidly for the white route.
So far the 0.786 is acting as a resistance which is a pre-warning for that.

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Have adjusted the yellow count as one more possibility (less likely), though primarly I focus on white.

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Primarly I would expect for the yellow one more smaller low to happen, though I could count in a different way, but probabilities higher for at least one more low.

In the white count we could have bottomed in the "a" wave.

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For the yellow we could have alternatively the circle wave 4 already in, altough I would love to see it going a bit higher, therefore the primarly expected one more low in that would not need to drop too deep.

For the white we are likely in the white b wave up, forming a smaller a-b-c structure, therefore it is still valid, neither route invalidated.

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First acceptable target has been reached for the yellow, technicly it is possible it has bottomed. Can it expand further? Yes. Now has a good chance though to the bulls to put in the bottom and make the first sequence to the upside. Resistance box has beend adjusted for the white route's b wave, it should not have a sustained break above 10 USD.

First good sign: break above the small yellow dotted trendline, with a 5 wave motive move
Second good sign: after pullback holding support (will add later, as soon we go above the trendline
Third good sign: take out 6.72 USD

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I can count 5 micro-wave up, in this case the yellow 1 would top / should top soon, support levels added for a possible soon-to be arriving pullback. Yellow trendline broken to the upside as well.

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support did not hold after 5 waves, got destroyed. Now it is probable this was an irregular flat wave circle 4, and probablities growing we will visit the bigger box downside. Bulls has missed this near-perfect opportunity, did not wanted to have it turned around so far.

Now i have added a resistance area, as soon that is not taken out, meaning breaking to the upside in a sustained way, further downside possible. So what do we need now? a new 5 wave up, then a 3 count pullback which hold support.

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Due to the structure, in yellow now I would "expect" an other 5 wave down. That would finish technicly the bottoming sequence. This would mean some kind of at least a correction is starting now, which then should be rejected in the red resistance area.

Now. Because however price reacted nicely to the adjusted downtarget lines, it CAN happen in yellow that the lows maaaaaybe in. I dont trust it though, then we would need to see 5 waves up breaking above the red resistance. So far, not even wave 1 is finished in that case, and in there i dont see any clear 5 waves nano-structure. Maybe as a diagonal, but its highly speculative.

Also dont forget, we have the white route which is a bit more "bearish" (long term also bullish, but likely it takes quiet a while more with bigge swings to bottom out.)

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Now it is getting interesting; reaction on a common target visible. So far we have 3 waves up, and i marked the trendline which definetely needs to be broken - could be a good first indication. Essentially for the yellow the lows NOW COULD be in, be aware further extension still possible as it is a 3 wave move only.

We would need to break above at least the first red resistance preferably in 5 waves. Good start - bulls needs to show up and prove it.

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Alt yellow getting challenged, next dowside target marked. So far, remember, there is NO 5 waves up (which we would need in some shape of form), also so far rejection at the falling dotted trendline. I have added a small, "micro" - fib support, which is heavily challenged already; it still might be a diagonal (abc movements alltogether to the upside), but then the previous low, and preferably the fib box MUST hold.

Otherwise probabilities are high it will extend lower. Under the last marked low I would think though its not the yellow route, but the white, meaning, a bigger correction would arrive at some point and a new incoming low, however, be aware the white allows for banktrupcy as well. So be careful.

tommtajlor

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