Emerging markets bounce?
Emerging Markets ETFs are in a parallel channel. Price just bounced on the lower limit.
Investors are concerned about the high inflation to be expected in the US (3.7% unemployment = wages going up) which would encourage the FED to raise interests even more and drive the USD up. A high USD and higher yields would draw investors away from EM because they could get a decent return at lower risk (Bonds or T-Bills). The trade war risks is obviously not helping. In addition, higher interest rates would result in higher DEBT/GDP ratios in emerging countries that
However, one can argue that those factors have been priced in since EEM is down 25% in 2018, and it could be a good time to buy.
I would not be too confident about that. If the overall trend goes down, EM are likely to perform poorly.
If Trump backs-up on tariffs, which is extremely unlikely, then the outlook could change.
Trade safe!
Investors are concerned about the high inflation to be expected in the US (3.7% unemployment = wages going up) which would encourage the FED to raise interests even more and drive the USD up. A high USD and higher yields would draw investors away from EM because they could get a decent return at lower risk (Bonds or T-Bills). The trade war risks is obviously not helping. In addition, higher interest rates would result in higher DEBT/GDP ratios in emerging countries that
However, one can argue that those factors have been priced in since EEM is down 25% in 2018, and it could be a good time to buy.
I would not be too confident about that. If the overall trend goes down, EM are likely to perform poorly.
If Trump backs-up on tariffs, which is extremely unlikely, then the outlook could change.
Trade safe!
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