NatGas is not Oil ENB Distribution Occurring
Updated
Near the upper end of the range, have been waiting and accumulating fiat, would have loved to buy lower but cash came in one day late for me and now I am looking to buy my next tranche of ENB, but I am loathed to do it in the upper mid 40s. There is about 2 Month till the next Ex-dividend date and there is still time to range on this one. Anything can happen and at near 7.5% yield, this is a decent buy and hold for years. Most of my purchases of ENB have been at the Mid to High 30s and Low 40s so I would like to keep my cost average down.
So back to my point, NatGas is not oil, so when Oil rips higher, a lot of newer investors look at ENB and their very decent yield and assume mistakenly that the rip in oil will boost ENB. To a certain extent it helps ENB, but ENB is not a pure oil play. ENB is very much a NatGas play and as we approach spring (very soon) the need for heating starts to end and we are not warm enough for Air Conditioning in the Northern Hemisphere. Spring time is usually a good time to buy ENB based on the yearly cycle, so my thesis is to wait and accumulate cash and look to target a move down for adding or starting a position. Again, this one is a good Buy and Hold and from a personal point of view, I would like to increase my holdings on this one by 50%->100% more.
Might be using left over Gold via PMs to do that, as it does nothing for me in the long run. Perhaps I can thread the needle and if the bounce in Gold is meaningful, and enough people buy the inflation story, we can see Gold try to limp back to above 1800. On the topic of Gold, probably we will see crabbing (market losers who got their timing wrong and are looking to exit with reduced loses, and thus we have a fair amount of retail sell pressure), and the usual nonsense with people looking to exit all the way up on any decent rallies, this would be retail looking to cut losses when they bought near multi-year highs. I'm not in that position, my PM advisor is all risk free as I have taken my original investment out and I really don't care what happens to it. Not saying gold is dead, but it is a rich man's game, and a central banker's game. Would rather have dividends than this security blanket.
So back to my point, NatGas is not oil, so when Oil rips higher, a lot of newer investors look at ENB and their very decent yield and assume mistakenly that the rip in oil will boost ENB. To a certain extent it helps ENB, but ENB is not a pure oil play. ENB is very much a NatGas play and as we approach spring (very soon) the need for heating starts to end and we are not warm enough for Air Conditioning in the Northern Hemisphere. Spring time is usually a good time to buy ENB based on the yearly cycle, so my thesis is to wait and accumulate cash and look to target a move down for adding or starting a position. Again, this one is a good Buy and Hold and from a personal point of view, I would like to increase my holdings on this one by 50%->100% more.
Might be using left over Gold via PMs to do that, as it does nothing for me in the long run. Perhaps I can thread the needle and if the bounce in Gold is meaningful, and enough people buy the inflation story, we can see Gold try to limp back to above 1800. On the topic of Gold, probably we will see crabbing (market losers who got their timing wrong and are looking to exit with reduced loses, and thus we have a fair amount of retail sell pressure), and the usual nonsense with people looking to exit all the way up on any decent rallies, this would be retail looking to cut losses when they bought near multi-year highs. I'm not in that position, my PM advisor is all risk free as I have taken my original investment out and I really don't care what happens to it. Not saying gold is dead, but it is a rich man's game, and a central banker's game. Would rather have dividends than this security blanket.
Note
Full Disclosure, ENB is my second largest Energy Position next to XOM (USD) in my American Hodlings. Also holding XEG, CNQ, VET, CPG, and FENY (USD).Note
Also waiting for more Energy FUD from the media (who have already overplayed their hand in 2020), have already found one article on market watch trying to dismiss the commodity supercycle turning. Maybe yes, maybe no, but what I suspect is that we are due for a dip on some good energy names in the next few weeks. Now that everyone has seen the rip on Oil especially, I would imagine that more big money will be looking to deploy capital. Also Line 5 headlines might start to appear. I will be digging through the web for evidence of this theory.
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