Enjin CoinLong
Update on ENJUSD (2nd Peak soon?)
Updated
• ENJUSD has been forming an ascending parallel channel since Mar’20
• She touched the topline of this channel at her 1st peak.
• The Fib levels from 1st peak to bottom, from top to bottom of Wave 2, and from top to bottom of Wave 4 (assuming Wave 4 is over), suggest that she will reach the topline of this channel again between $6.076 - $8.056.
• ENJUSD has been forming a cup & handle since her 1st peak, and seems to be completing her handle at the moment. There is confluence with Fib levels, as the C&P suggests a 2nd peak of approximately $7.
• RSI levels appear to be forming a cup and handle too, but from end-Apr’21. This C&P suggest a weekly RSI peak of approximately 97%. Watch the weekly RSI hit around this level, dip and reach a lower high like what happened in Apr’21.
• *****Assuming BTC does not drag ENJUSD down****, and *assuming* we have identified the correct Fib levels, *and* the bottom of Wave 4 is in, then we should start approaching the topline of the parallel channel again quite soon.
• My gut tells me that we will break through the resistance levels at $6.076 - $6.519. I’m not optimistic that we will break through the resistance levels at $7.845 - $8.237. But let’s monitor and observe.
• At the moment, here are my TPs. I’ve learnt my lesson from LRC.
TP1: 6.178 (10%)
TP2: 6.590 (20%)
TP3: 7.002 (30%)
TP4: 7.826 (40%)
• She touched the topline of this channel at her 1st peak.
• The Fib levels from 1st peak to bottom, from top to bottom of Wave 2, and from top to bottom of Wave 4 (assuming Wave 4 is over), suggest that she will reach the topline of this channel again between $6.076 - $8.056.
• ENJUSD has been forming a cup & handle since her 1st peak, and seems to be completing her handle at the moment. There is confluence with Fib levels, as the C&P suggests a 2nd peak of approximately $7.
• RSI levels appear to be forming a cup and handle too, but from end-Apr’21. This C&P suggest a weekly RSI peak of approximately 97%. Watch the weekly RSI hit around this level, dip and reach a lower high like what happened in Apr’21.
• *****Assuming BTC does not drag ENJUSD down****, and *assuming* we have identified the correct Fib levels, *and* the bottom of Wave 4 is in, then we should start approaching the topline of the parallel channel again quite soon.
• My gut tells me that we will break through the resistance levels at $6.076 - $6.519. I’m not optimistic that we will break through the resistance levels at $7.845 - $8.237. But let’s monitor and observe.
• At the moment, here are my TPs. I’ve learnt my lesson from LRC.
TP1: 6.178 (10%)
TP2: 6.590 (20%)
TP3: 7.002 (30%)
TP4: 7.826 (40%)
Note
A closer look at how the Fib levels have served as springboards.Note
I might have been overly optimistic with my TPs. Revied TPs upon refining my forecast:TP1: 6.076 (10%)
TP2: 6.519 (20%)
TP3: 6.574 (30%)
TP3: 6.688 (40%)
Note
Nothing much, just wanted to point out how nicely the Fib levels have worked as springboards. For self's reference.Note
The little bullish falling wedge on the 4hourly that will help us complete the cup and handle on the weekly.Note
• ENJUSDT seems to be finding support at the previous ATH.• However, the real intent of this update is to give a shoutout to tradingview.com/u/d-MR96nBa/... for a really insight comment he made in another of my analyses where he said he doesn't "draw fantasy lines". But trade based on experience as "Real traders understand everything we share is not perfect 100 % sure Thing."
• I'm not sure if he just typed it out without much thinking, but let's take some time to appreciate the produndity of his point.
• One, he's absolutely right in calling them fantasy lines. Technically speaking, we dabblers in TA are drawing imaginary lines, by definition any geometric line which is defined abstractly and does not exist in physical reality. If Bulkowski calls them imaginary lines, why can't we be humble and call them that?
• Two, he's also absolutely right in pointing out that not everything we share possesses 100% certainty. Heck! Most TA tools have only been validated against the US stock market (and for some, Forex), and the accuracy of any single forecast can be less than 68% (1 sigma) away from the mean, and even lower for the crypto market. (Cue Crypto Hamster)
• And that is why he relies on his gut...lucky him for he has internalised TA after 16 years!
• I'm in healthcare R&D, and maybe it is an occupational hazard, but I take a methodical approach to diagnose each coin. Very similar to clinical diagnosis, each investigation by itself has much less than 100& accuracy (sorry, but it's the truth); this is why clinicians always sought to 1) give time to allow conditions to "work up"; 2) order multiple investigations repetitively on a regular basis to seek confluence and try to eliminate sources of error via clinical acumen (exp+algo); 3) document extensively to keep proper medical, investigative, psychosocial history etc; and clinicians also know that the tools they employ are imperfect, which is why the ability to conduct research is a necessary criterion for a clinician to advance in seniority so that they can contribute to the sum of knowledge.
• When trading, I adopt a similar approach. 1) I try to understand the personality of each coin over time; 2) I apply multiple tools and attempt to seek confluence; 3) I will document extensively investigative results and my thoughts on the coins which I am looking at. Whether I'm right or wrong does not matter, what matters is documenting the thoughts down, and subsequently trying to understand why they are right or wrong (randomness or Cthulhu may account for more than 30% of explanations, if research studies were to be trusted); and 4) seek to stretch and explore the limits of the tools I employ in order to potentially develop novel tools (one of which I shared with tradingview.com/u/d-MR96nBa/...).
• That being said, I remember very clearly and distinctly the maxim for the really serious conditions that one should not be overly square when diagnosing certain conditions such as ACS. This is why one would be rushed to the senior con when certain trigger words at uttered at Triage.
• tradingview.com/u/d-MR96nBa/... reminds me of the cardio senior consultants I know. Experienced, calm, fun (haha) and had the years to internalise the TA rules which we are struggling hard to work out methodically.
Note
• I might have been too hasty in suggesting that ENJUSD will be hitting her second peak soon. • However, it does not appear that the bullrun is over for ENJ.
• As the macro parallel channel is an ascending one, the above two points together suggest an eventual peak higher than $7.
• We'll need to re-evaluate ENJUSD given that some indicators have reset.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.