EOS Scenarios - Bounce off 240 day EMA
Updated
EOS has broken down through my optimistic consolidation pattern and has broken down through the 120 day EMA. Seems likely at this point to retest both the wider consolidation pattern that's formed as well as touch down on the 240 day EMA. As long as your stop loss is set below the 480 day EMA, I think you'll be in the clear for a nice long position (keep that leverage down on a swing trade like this).
I've laid out three paths I see as possibly - color coded by which EMA will act as final support. I would love to see us fail the retest of the 120 day EMA and continue our bull run, but the OBV seems to indicate that we'll see a little more of a dip. Most likely scenario I see playing out is a successful retest of the 240 day EMA (and expanded consolidation triangle) and then up through the various resistances and supports - back on our way.
$8.628 is a good target. Just rolls off the tongue. Stop loss below 480 day EMA. This is a horrible risk/reward as-is, but I will DCA into the position at the 240 day EMA touch and the 480 day EMA touch. That said, a longer term target of $16 or $22 or, hell, $7000? Well that makes for a fine risk to reward.
I've laid out three paths I see as possibly - color coded by which EMA will act as final support. I would love to see us fail the retest of the 120 day EMA and continue our bull run, but the OBV seems to indicate that we'll see a little more of a dip. Most likely scenario I see playing out is a successful retest of the 240 day EMA (and expanded consolidation triangle) and then up through the various resistances and supports - back on our way.
$8.628 is a good target. Just rolls off the tongue. Stop loss below 480 day EMA. This is a horrible risk/reward as-is, but I will DCA into the position at the 240 day EMA touch and the 480 day EMA touch. That said, a longer term target of $16 or $22 or, hell, $7000? Well that makes for a fine risk to reward.
Note
Not a terrible time to DCA in at this strong support of $5.6. I've moved my other orders up to $5.208 and $5.028.Note
Damn. Off to the red path it is.In the end, this trade wasn't much of a trade as much as it was a long term holder DCA strategy. I mean, I expect a continuation of the bull run to kick off soon, but that's based more on hope than analysis at this point. So it's biased and therefore set up for failure and disappointment. Based on my analysis that we were headed on the yellow path, I should have shorted to where we are now (would've been a great gain).
Regardless - in long now and will DCA off the 480 day EMA.
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