Bearish Weekly ES1! (S&P)
Updated
Cleaner chart compared to previous post.
Previous post copied:
Bearish Case:
I believe we are finishing wave 2 of a three wave down, measured reversal of the long bull run we’ve been in for the past 14 years. Wave three will be equal to wave 1, which was 1291 points.
Final target 2764.
What this chart is displaying:
* Failure to get into 14 year trend line for the last 6 months,
* Fallen out of a rising wedge on weekly, w/ confirmed retest
* Possible ending wave 2 (correction of wave 1 down), looking for wave 3 down (equal in pips to wave 1).
* 2W RSI is high.
* Monthly candles cannot get above 4089 ( ES1! ) for the last 8 months.
* Possible 5 candle FTM on weekly ( bearish continuation). This week's close is important (below 4049 ES1! ) as well as confirmation next Friday. This case is less strong if the weekly closes above 4049 ( ES1! ) but not invalidated.
* Possible triple top/ H&S on weekly if price goes back down to below 3900.
* Weeklies have been forming tops when they get above the moving averages since August ’22 (see purple highlight “tops”). (Shout out to MartyBoots for drawing attention to the first one way back in August, ’22. He nailed that move down).
Not to mention fundamentals. Credit tightening which can act like rate raises, no cuts for 2023, and, you know, banks & bonds & energy and "stuff".
Powell said both, "banks are stable" AND "it's really too soon to tell, I mean this just happened." Similar but different to Bear Sterns before Lehman?
Previous post copied:
Bearish Case:
I believe we are finishing wave 2 of a three wave down, measured reversal of the long bull run we’ve been in for the past 14 years. Wave three will be equal to wave 1, which was 1291 points.
Final target 2764.
What this chart is displaying:
* Failure to get into 14 year trend line for the last 6 months,
* Fallen out of a rising wedge on weekly, w/ confirmed retest
* Possible ending wave 2 (correction of wave 1 down), looking for wave 3 down (equal in pips to wave 1).
* 2W RSI is high.
* Monthly candles cannot get above 4089 ( ES1! ) for the last 8 months.
* Possible 5 candle FTM on weekly ( bearish continuation). This week's close is important (below 4049 ES1! ) as well as confirmation next Friday. This case is less strong if the weekly closes above 4049 ( ES1! ) but not invalidated.
* Possible triple top/ H&S on weekly if price goes back down to below 3900.
* Weeklies have been forming tops when they get above the moving averages since August ’22 (see purple highlight “tops”). (Shout out to MartyBoots for drawing attention to the first one way back in August, ’22. He nailed that move down).
Not to mention fundamentals. Credit tightening which can act like rate raises, no cuts for 2023, and, you know, banks & bonds & energy and "stuff".
Powell said both, "banks are stable" AND "it's really too soon to tell, I mean this just happened." Similar but different to Bear Sterns before Lehman?
Note
This week's rally is short on volume. May be making a triple top/H&S on daily & weekly. Even if we get to 4200 ... I still think we're turning around. Maybe middle of April/beginning of May.Note
It has a long way to go before it completes the right shoulder. TV indicators also showing a triple top on the daily. CBKWahoo pointed out a very compelling fractal pattern showing the bear market in 2001 that could possibly be repeating right now. In '01, we broke out of the downward channel, retested, and the breakout was confirmed. And then the market collapsed and never looked back.Note
Still in play. Bottom may occur before September.Note
Still in play & may be starting now. Triple top formed on daily & weekly time frames, along with another rising wedge on the daily with a breakout to the downside with this after hours gap down. RSI turned over on 3 day, weekly and 2W time frames. SPY first major target 333 end of June/July. Do you think we'll go lower?
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