SPX - decisions, decisions
Updated
Powell speaking today will be a wild card for the markets - a sort of mini fomc. I still expect a sell off to the daily 18ma at 4060 this week, but if we are going to have a final rally it should be from there (green path). If they sell hard under the 18 ma, it may act as resistance on any bounce (red path). One more up would give us regular bearish divergence and probably a double top - or close to it. I'm open to both paths right now.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Note
A quick fall on the rsi today would get us to the same level as other bottoms in this rally, this is why I'm open to one more rally if we fall fast today. Note
If this is a bear flag on ES (a big IF) the target is about 4030. That would mean we get under the 18ma daily at least intra day sometime this week (again, if this happens) Note
If the bear flag fails, we may have an abc happening here. I'm leaning this way if they get over 4110 on SPX. There's also a gap at 4140 on SPX cash. Note
2nd option now looks better Note
powell chat here - youtube.com/watch?v=kkC4LuuxOg4Note
B wave may be done, expecting a rug pull soon. Note
Note
well they F'd my plans to buy at the 18. We're going to probably rally past the 18monthy MA again before the move down. At this point bears are probably going to give up. I'll add more shorts above 4200 again if they give me the chance this week. Note
on futures - 4190 has been stiff resistance for the last few rallies - including yesterday. Bulls need to breach that, otherwise it could be a double top forming. Bias is still up and Slow Stochastic is still embedded bullish.Note
lots of fed speakers today. It's possible we already had a first impulse and yesterday was it's correction. Today may be a surprise to the downside.
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