Likely some sideways movement before the next real move
Updated
So the 30m and 1hr were able to squeak out some signs to head lower, and because of that I jumped in Short at 4204. I'm certainly not completely sold we are dumping anymore since we broke the trends that were shifting us to the downside. I will hold this short until the 2hr signals a downtrend which is without a doubt going to be a higher low and then I will proceed with caution and potentially even cash out.
At this point I am cautiously bullish in the medium term outlook, but the sell signal on Trend Momentum on the Weekly timeframe during upward movement has me very skittish. As I said in the video, this will be the first sell signal during the ESM contract since March, and the ESM contract expires here in just a few weeks and there tends to be a major move or reversal during these times, or at least a huge uptick in volume which we have been lacking this whole contract like I haven't seen since the end of 2021.
Anyways, trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Any movement back above 4204 could be met with additional follow through since the 30m was a flat trend basically. Also, if we get lower to a 2hr, I would expect it to try and find some buy the dip mentality.
The Short Position;
A return to 4204 may just be another entry to the down, I would really watch momentum (I would expect it to push higher if it goes up there rather than just touch and come back down, honestly). Additionally, a late entry point might be a strong surge below 4192, at least down to the 2hr downtrend mark which I'd assume will be somewhere along 4180ish.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. FOMC minutes tomorrow, so maybe some pretrading depending on what is expected from that report.
Earnings;
Intuit and Lowes is today. So retail and tech. Shouldn't resonate through the market though as we are on the tail end of Earnings season.
My sentiment (from 4194) is;
Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
My biggest pause on just believe we will go higher is dealing with this weekly momentum trend sell signal. Maybe we will be flat for a couple weeks that will give me some time away from that signal or even show a reverse and buy signal instead.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
At this point I am cautiously bullish in the medium term outlook, but the sell signal on Trend Momentum on the Weekly timeframe during upward movement has me very skittish. As I said in the video, this will be the first sell signal during the ESM contract since March, and the ESM contract expires here in just a few weeks and there tends to be a major move or reversal during these times, or at least a huge uptick in volume which we have been lacking this whole contract like I haven't seen since the end of 2021.
Anyways, trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
Any movement back above 4204 could be met with additional follow through since the 30m was a flat trend basically. Also, if we get lower to a 2hr, I would expect it to try and find some buy the dip mentality.
The Short Position;
A return to 4204 may just be another entry to the down, I would really watch momentum (I would expect it to push higher if it goes up there rather than just touch and come back down, honestly). Additionally, a late entry point might be a strong surge below 4192, at least down to the 2hr downtrend mark which I'd assume will be somewhere along 4180ish.
Economic Data;
Nothing major today. FOMC minutes tomorrow, so maybe some pretrading depending on what is expected from that report.
Earnings;
Intuit and Lowes is today. So retail and tech. Shouldn't resonate through the market though as we are on the tail end of Earnings season.
My sentiment (from 4194) is;
Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
My biggest pause on just believe we will go higher is dealing with this weekly momentum trend sell signal. Maybe we will be flat for a couple weeks that will give me some time away from that signal or even show a reverse and buy signal instead.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Note
2hr and 3hr came in at 4180 as I expected. This is also the level at which the descending 6hr lower high trend was at. So far we've broken below it.The 4hr is currently signaling right now but this bar just opened so we will see where we end at the close.
Note
I've decided to cash out here at 4160 for now. Kinda kicking myself for not cashing out immediately when we hit got to 4154, because that would have taken care of my entire week in one day, however it really removes the pressure of trying to find another trade immediately.
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