Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly plan

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ES1!

Quick Update

​The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries. ​

As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.​
  • We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025.
  • Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach.
  • A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo.

Economic Calendar

Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week.
  • Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
  • Wednesday April 2, 2025: ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM
  • Thursday April 3, 2025: Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday, April 4, 2025: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech

Key Levels to Watch:
  • Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25
  • Key Resistance: 5850- 5860
  • LVN: 5770 -5760
  • Neutral Zone: 5705-5720
  • Key LIS Mid Range 2024: 5626.50
  • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5381
  • 2022 CVAH: 5349.75
  • August 5th, 2024 Low: 5306.75

  1. Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue): In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level.

  2. Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war): In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets.

  3. Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty): In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.




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