Trends maxed to the upside; Some small pullback expected
Updated
With things like NVidia at 175x Forward Earnings, I really see some pullback here on these overheated tech stocks. However, I am waiting to see the upward momentum waver before I decide to go in short on this overly optimistic AI fueled rally.
Trends are now maxed out to the upside, and so I expect some pullback there as well so we can have trends to take us higher.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4183 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Economic Data;
Mostly just jobs info all week. Couple other minor things but that is definitely the biggest driver all week.
Earnings season is over.
Geopolitical Issue;
I think the biggest threat to this rally is Geopolitical issues rising with China and Taiwan, so keep your eyes on that. NVidia's success is based on their continued coupling with Taiwan Semi. Any threat to Taiwan, and subsequently Taiwan Semi, within the next 2 years or so while other companies gain the hardware to compete with Taiwan Semi, would crush the current AI bubble.
That being said I haven't heard of any major aggression of China against Taiwan lately.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Ultimately I still think the deciding factor is going to be the ESM contract ending here shortly.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
Trends are now maxed out to the upside, and so I expect some pullback there as well so we can have trends to take us higher.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4183 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Economic Data;
Mostly just jobs info all week. Couple other minor things but that is definitely the biggest driver all week.
Earnings season is over.
Geopolitical Issue;
I think the biggest threat to this rally is Geopolitical issues rising with China and Taiwan, so keep your eyes on that. NVidia's success is based on their continued coupling with Taiwan Semi. Any threat to Taiwan, and subsequently Taiwan Semi, within the next 2 years or so while other companies gain the hardware to compete with Taiwan Semi, would crush the current AI bubble.
That being said I haven't heard of any major aggression of China against Taiwan lately.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Ultimately I still think the deciding factor is going to be the ESM contract ending here shortly.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
Note
Just FYI, I will be absent for a chunk of June. This week I heard Thursday to Vermont, next week Wednesday I head to upstate Pennsylvania, and mid June I'm in West Virginia.Potentially I may head to Montana for 2 months July to September also, where I may work sporadically but only in extreme positioning spots.
Note
Got both the 30m and 1hr downtrend, obviously higher lows... I went Long at 4216, looking to cap out at 4236 or at least see if momentum fizzles out there also.Note
Stopped for lunch money. I may go back to sitting out the rest of today.
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