Last Week :
Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value.
This Week :
Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here.
We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top.
Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes.
On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value.
This Week :
Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here.
We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top.
Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes.
On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
Trade active
Sunday Globex opened over VAH and grinded all night towards the Edge, we got right up into it tested 53 - 49 where selling came in to front run the Edge which gave us a move back under 40s, holding under 40s brought in more weakness and that Globex supply sold out into VAH and made push for Value but we weren't able to stay in Value or close under 23 - 18 area which for now tells us that market may not be ready to come back in just yet. Holding over VAH keeps us in current 6060s - 20s Intraday Range and we may continue to balance inside it while we build the Supply or get enough Volume to come back inside Value. Edge top will remain our bigger resistance and for any continuation out of this Intraday Range higher we would need to get inside the Edge and be able to push/hold over 60s until then price may stay under the Edge and we could balance in 020s - 50s areas. We are at ATH and if no outside selling comes in we will need to build the supply before we can come back in and start taking lower cost basis. For now we have supply over 30 - 40s and outside selling may come in around/inside Edge. Note
Globex has been building supply all night and we are showing signs of acceptance in VAH with supply above, we are still getting buying under 23-18 area BUT if we accept under keep downside targets in mind as long as we don't accept back over 30-40s those can be in play today.Note
So far what this price action has showed us this week is that we have found a good resistance Edge of a range that can keep us in, we made corrections back inside Value and fixed the Poor Globex Low from last Friday but the cost basis under it held and supply runs out when we get there or close to it, on the other hand we have no stronger buyers to keep pushing us through the above Edge or who are willing to pay too much over Value just yet. We have less than two months left in the year, which might mean not a lot of new buying might be coming in at the top of the range and whatever selling we do get when supply corrects gets absorbed inside Value. The way to possibly use this going forward is to look at our current range of being around 980s - 640s, between these areas we look for balancing action and to trade inventory corrections on smaller time frames once supply builds up and getting out at first reasons to exit without looking for too much continuation on either side, corrections can be stronger when we are around the edges of these areas or when if we push out of them to correct back in. We are still extended from MAs on Weekly/Daily/4hr which would be needed to set up around for a better correction under them and also dont have the willing buyers to keep pushing us after already a big move so market is ok with just being in distribution mode up here at higher prices. For any bigger change out of these areas we would need to see acceptance inside the upper Edge over 650 without coming back in or for more downside out of Value we would first need to accept under 980s to get inside the lower Cost Basis and take out VAL without popping back into Values Mean, until then we will look for back and forth trading with possibly smaller ranges unless we are extended away then moves could have stronger volume for better continuation. We wait for more structure to form and let us know if we will attempt a push out of the Edge and accept or fail or if we will hold under it and build up enough to be able to start the next step in this correction process to get In and Under Value. We did show acceptance in current 620s - 780s Intraday range so the lower Edge of it could still be a good target to visit just need to watch out for continuation under VAL unless we accept and hold under Cost Basis. Note
Remember under VAL we are under smaller cost basis and this can give us continuation inside the lower Edge towards previous ATH area. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.