S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 5637.00, down 15.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,591.25, down 199.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures consolidated lower on Monday in a healthy manner. Despite a dovish Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Friday and bursts of strength across the indices in response to his tone, nothing really changed; the odds of three and four rate cuts this year have not budged, and the market is essentially right back into range. In addition, our opinion is little changed; the CME’s FedWatch Tool signaling 100bps worth of cuts through yearend at a 70.5% probability is overzealous and the rebound from the August 5th volatility event is too clean. Most of our readers are familiar with our style, so for those of you who are not, we are rarely negative on the stock market, but right here, right now, outside of one binary factor (NVDA earnings), we believe the risks are skewed to the downside as those probabilities are to be reined in and volatility will have a gasp at the least.
Yesterday’s opening bell range in the E-mini S&P was a classic stop sweep, trading to a new swing high of 5669, just shy of our major three-star level at 5672.75, before reversing 40 points. We now have major three-star resistance at 5669-5672.75 and a new line in the sand in which a close above will reinvigorate bullish tailwinds. Remember, we still have a critical line in the sand for the E-mini NQ at 19,925. With some early weakness, the most crucial level for each the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ comes in at 5599.25-5603.25 and 19,462-19,495, where a break below is likely to invite heavy waves of selling.
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