1) Lessons from the monthly technical close for the medium/long term
It's Wednesday April 30, the end of the stock market month with another monthly technical close this evening. April has been a highly volatile month, with a bearish shock at the start of the month on the back of the trade war, followed by a bullish recovery when the time for trade diplomacy between the United States and its main trading partners arrived.
In technical analysis, it's the monthly timeframe that enables us to project the underlying trend, i.e. the market's medium/long-term trend.
We will therefore be taking a decision on the monthly chart, which will be fixed for good at the close of the trading session on Wednesday April 30. Two markets will be studied: the S&P 500 index and APPLE, the world's largest market capitalization.
2) Equity markets: the (long-term) supports of the monthly time horizon are preserved
The S&P500 fell by 21% between its all-time high in February and the low point of the bearish shock at the beginning of April. We now have the technical close for the month of April, represented on the chart below by Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, complemented by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators.
In terms of price action, the essentials have been preserved: the uptrend line which joins all lows since the health crisis has been defended, and still acts as support for the market's underlying uptrend.
In terms of the ichimoku system, the Kijun-sen has also been preserved, as has the former record of 2021, the horizontal support at 4808 points. As long as the S&P 500 remains above the combination of these three supports, the long-term momentum remains bullish.
On the other hand, there are warnings of trend exhaustion in terms of market momentum, represented below by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators. Volatility should therefore remain at a relatively high level, even if the VIX peak is probably behind us.
3) APPLE, the technical message from the stock with the world's largest market capitalization
Technical analysis applied to stock market indices is the first job to be done in order to form an opinion on the underlying trend. But let's not forget that a stock market index only exists because there are stocks in it. The S&P 500 is considered the benchmark index for US finance, and in its calculation, the weight of shares from the “magnificent 7” is dominant. This is particularly true of Apple shares, the world's largest market capitalization on the international equity market. Its market capitalization exceeds 3,000 billion US dollars, second only to that of gold at 22,000 billion US dollars.
It is therefore interesting to note that APPLE's new monthly technical close highlights the preservation of a long-term chartist bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
It's Wednesday April 30, the end of the stock market month with another monthly technical close this evening. April has been a highly volatile month, with a bearish shock at the start of the month on the back of the trade war, followed by a bullish recovery when the time for trade diplomacy between the United States and its main trading partners arrived.
In technical analysis, it's the monthly timeframe that enables us to project the underlying trend, i.e. the market's medium/long-term trend.
We will therefore be taking a decision on the monthly chart, which will be fixed for good at the close of the trading session on Wednesday April 30. Two markets will be studied: the S&P 500 index and APPLE, the world's largest market capitalization.
2) Equity markets: the (long-term) supports of the monthly time horizon are preserved
The S&P500 fell by 21% between its all-time high in February and the low point of the bearish shock at the beginning of April. We now have the technical close for the month of April, represented on the chart below by Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, complemented by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators.
In terms of price action, the essentials have been preserved: the uptrend line which joins all lows since the health crisis has been defended, and still acts as support for the market's underlying uptrend.
In terms of the ichimoku system, the Kijun-sen has also been preserved, as has the former record of 2021, the horizontal support at 4808 points. As long as the S&P 500 remains above the combination of these three supports, the long-term momentum remains bullish.
On the other hand, there are warnings of trend exhaustion in terms of market momentum, represented below by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators. Volatility should therefore remain at a relatively high level, even if the VIX peak is probably behind us.
3) APPLE, the technical message from the stock with the world's largest market capitalization
Technical analysis applied to stock market indices is the first job to be done in order to form an opinion on the underlying trend. But let's not forget that a stock market index only exists because there are stocks in it. The S&P 500 is considered the benchmark index for US finance, and in its calculation, the weight of shares from the “magnificent 7” is dominant. This is particularly true of Apple shares, the world's largest market capitalization on the international equity market. Its market capitalization exceeds 3,000 billion US dollars, second only to that of gold at 22,000 billion US dollars.
It is therefore interesting to note that APPLE's new monthly technical close highlights the preservation of a long-term chartist bullish channel.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.