quick "death cross" analysis: predicting the bottom
Updated
We are about to "death cross" on the 200/50 daily.
Consider that previous "death cross" was never as severe, lasted from 4 and 9 months respectively.
The parabolic downtrend line is about to break, so we might see higher prices in the next 24 hours, before diving down again.
We should fully expect a drawn out "death cross" down trend to last 2-3 quarters at least, before climbing just before elections up to keep trump in office. (he probably doesnt need the help....biden is terrible)
we might see a pull back to 2600 and 2800, before falling to 2000 before ranging, where smart money will likely let us accumulate, followed by a bull trap, before dumping the market to wash out weak hands by testing the 2K low. Once the stop hunt is complete, smart money will move markets back up again.
Going long now could get you stopped out early by another weak stop hunt to 2100 might hit in 5-7 days. Target price of 2500/2600 is good, but high volatility means we position sizing and risk management is more important than ever. better to use ES as a hedge IMO.
Consider that previous "death cross" was never as severe, lasted from 4 and 9 months respectively.
The parabolic downtrend line is about to break, so we might see higher prices in the next 24 hours, before diving down again.
We should fully expect a drawn out "death cross" down trend to last 2-3 quarters at least, before climbing just before elections up to keep trump in office. (he probably doesnt need the help....biden is terrible)
we might see a pull back to 2600 and 2800, before falling to 2000 before ranging, where smart money will likely let us accumulate, followed by a bull trap, before dumping the market to wash out weak hands by testing the 2K low. Once the stop hunt is complete, smart money will move markets back up again.
Going long now could get you stopped out early by another weak stop hunt to 2100 might hit in 5-7 days. Target price of 2500/2600 is good, but high volatility means we position sizing and risk management is more important than ever. better to use ES as a hedge IMO.
Note
Also consider on the weekly chart, the last death cross bottomed out at the 200MA. This time, we are way past the 200, so we should expect price action to bounce off the 200MA as resistance around 2600. I don't think we'll see golden cross until at least one bounce off 200MA resistance.
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