Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Minimal Excess; Non-Separation Of Value; Untested POCs; Gaps
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week mixed with the S&P 500 recovering its all-time high on relative strength from the technology sector.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s higher open on earnings and stimulus talks was followed by a balanced, low-volume session which migrated value to the top of prior balance. The market caught up to Monday’s delta, edging higher overnight on better than expected retail earnings, before liquidating, making a V-shape recovery, and resolving some resting liquidity at and above the $3,390 area.
On Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled signs of a difficult recovery, the market left value behind on a spike which repaired some weak structure in the $3,350 region. Responsive buyers quashed Wednesday’s weak-handed initiative activity, driving prices higher into Friday’s monthly options expiration, albeit with minimal participation from the broader market.
Overall, the week ended in balance, again. In light of dull participation and poor structure on both sides of the market, attention has to be shifted to other stimuli, such as the cessation of trend in heavily weighted index constituents and decreased dealer hedging flows, among other things.
If momentum was to grow faint, there’s the potential for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the recent anxiety-driven activity. Still, the path of least resistance is up.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
GDP Estimate; Initial Claims; Consumer Spending; Core PCE Price Index; University Of Michigan Sentiment; Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; New Home Sales; Jackson Hole.
Fundamental:
Trading improves as China leads upswing; virus resurgence may delay negotiations. bit.ly/32b5OwM
Urban markets will recover after pandemic as Americans’ housing decisions evolve. bit.ly/34pSszh
The ECB has signaled September to be a key month to read the economic recovery. bloom.bg/2E8ybE0
China: Virus under control, V-shape recovery and strong demand, politics to worsen. bit.ly/31koaw3
Majority of fund managers pulled out of LQD even after the Fed announced support. bloom.bg/3hp55yy
LQD
COVID-19 coronavirus drop in fuel demand to weaken credit metrics through 2022. bit.ly/3j6rxwQ
Fearing shipping crunch, retailers have initiated the earliest-ever holiday sales plans. reut.rs/3j5U71f
XLY
Despite recovery, economists suggest an unemployment tsunami maybe coming. bit.ly/3l317h4
The peak leisure travel season is ending, and so might airlines’ modest recovery. bit.ly/3l317h4
JETS
American Airlines Group (NYSE: AAL) attracts shorts on suspension of flights. bit.ly/3l317h4
Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) resumed job cuts, in-line with cost-cutting plans. reut.rs/2Ego8N2
Deere & Co (NYSE: DE) shares hit ATH after company lifted its full-year forecast. reut.rs/31jQpuF
3 new U.S. stock exchanges are set to launch by the end of this September. reut.rs/3j6qa0Z
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) weighs the kill switch for political ads after elections. reut.rs/2Yr0eFt
Canada June retail sales rose by a record 23.7%, rising above pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs/31kuOT7
Investor concern over Democratic win and tax increases valid, but overdone. mgstn.ly/2QfKXD5
Eurozone money supply surge will not spark inflation in the near term. bit.ly/32gzJDF
U.S. dollar loses value and influence as debt rises, tax consequences uncertain. bit.ly/34oKR4j
DXY
Stimulus has largely been offset by a decrease in the volume of transactions. bit.ly/3hijigD
As homebuilder confidence matches record high, mortgage delinquencies rise. refini.tv/2YaK17n
Rising value of gold is evidence that the U.S. could be debasing its currency. bit.ly/3j5XBkv
Detailed analysis on global venture funding during the coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly/2Q66gH7
Asset managers at major U.S. investment firms encourage stock buying. bit.ly/3aKMomi
Workers win on Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs/31fIdM3
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to test coronavirus vaccine in 60,000 volunteers. reut.rs/31dXz3G
Delay in fiscal support is negative for the US economy and consumer facing sectors. bit.ly/31dAVsd
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) hit sales record on the online shopping surge. reut.rs/3l04PIn
Market rally has more to do with asset inflation, which is fueled by liquidity support. bit.ly/2EiNPw6
Corporations will assume the burden of safety, rising costs and lowering capacity. bit.ly/32fzTvj
People ready to start their household growing again, builders are playing catch up. bloom.bg/3l6d7yk
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) bets on electric Cadillacs, micro vans. reut.rs/2Qb9vwY
Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) expects slower cash burn as bookings improve. reut.rs/3hpJe9S
Fed policymakers see more easing ahead to help brace economy, sustain recovery. reut.rs/2Yf9FHO
OPEC+ pressed oil nations pumping above targets to cut more in August-September. reut.rs/3kZOaEF
Lowe’s Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW) beats sales expectations on spending surge. reut.rs/3l0uReq
NY Fed’s index of real-time economic data showed a significant rise in its first revision. bit.ly/3j5XBkv
Inflation is happening in the basket of goods that excludes food, fuel and housing. bloom.bg/3aD9gE8
Analysis confirms the picture of rising income inequality and slowing income growth. brook.gs/34er33w
Sentiment: 30.4% Bullish, 27.2% Neutral, 42.4% Bearish as of 8/19/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,109,556,133 as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42% as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY 
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ 
NDX
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM 
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD 
GDX 
GOLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO DBO USO 
USOIL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Minimal Excess; Non-Separation Of Value; Untested POCs; Gaps
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week mixed with the S&P 500 recovering its all-time high on relative strength from the technology sector.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday’s higher open on earnings and stimulus talks was followed by a balanced, low-volume session which migrated value to the top of prior balance. The market caught up to Monday’s delta, edging higher overnight on better than expected retail earnings, before liquidating, making a V-shape recovery, and resolving some resting liquidity at and above the $3,390 area.
On Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled signs of a difficult recovery, the market left value behind on a spike which repaired some weak structure in the $3,350 region. Responsive buyers quashed Wednesday’s weak-handed initiative activity, driving prices higher into Friday’s monthly options expiration, albeit with minimal participation from the broader market.
Overall, the week ended in balance, again. In light of dull participation and poor structure on both sides of the market, attention has to be shifted to other stimuli, such as the cessation of trend in heavily weighted index constituents and decreased dealer hedging flows, among other things.
If momentum was to grow faint, there’s the potential for a fast-moving correction of the poor structure left behind by the recent anxiety-driven activity. Still, the path of least resistance is up.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
GDP Estimate; Initial Claims; Consumer Spending; Core PCE Price Index; University Of Michigan Sentiment; Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; New Home Sales; Jackson Hole.
Fundamental:
Trading improves as China leads upswing; virus resurgence may delay negotiations. bit.ly/32b5OwM
Urban markets will recover after pandemic as Americans’ housing decisions evolve. bit.ly/34pSszh
The ECB has signaled September to be a key month to read the economic recovery. bloom.bg/2E8ybE0
China: Virus under control, V-shape recovery and strong demand, politics to worsen. bit.ly/31koaw3
Majority of fund managers pulled out of LQD even after the Fed announced support. bloom.bg/3hp55yy
LQDCOVID-19 coronavirus drop in fuel demand to weaken credit metrics through 2022. bit.ly/3j6rxwQ
Fearing shipping crunch, retailers have initiated the earliest-ever holiday sales plans. reut.rs/3j5U71f
XLYDespite recovery, economists suggest an unemployment tsunami maybe coming. bit.ly/3l317h4
The peak leisure travel season is ending, and so might airlines’ modest recovery. bit.ly/3l317h4
JETSAmerican Airlines Group (NYSE: AAL) attracts shorts on suspension of flights. bit.ly/3l317h4
Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) resumed job cuts, in-line with cost-cutting plans. reut.rs/2Ego8N2
Deere & Co (NYSE: DE) shares hit ATH after company lifted its full-year forecast. reut.rs/31jQpuF
3 new U.S. stock exchanges are set to launch by the end of this September. reut.rs/3j6qa0Z
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) weighs the kill switch for political ads after elections. reut.rs/2Yr0eFt
Canada June retail sales rose by a record 23.7%, rising above pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs/31kuOT7
Investor concern over Democratic win and tax increases valid, but overdone. mgstn.ly/2QfKXD5
Eurozone money supply surge will not spark inflation in the near term. bit.ly/32gzJDF
U.S. dollar loses value and influence as debt rises, tax consequences uncertain. bit.ly/34oKR4j
DXYStimulus has largely been offset by a decrease in the volume of transactions. bit.ly/3hijigD
As homebuilder confidence matches record high, mortgage delinquencies rise. refini.tv/2YaK17n
Rising value of gold is evidence that the U.S. could be debasing its currency. bit.ly/3j5XBkv
Detailed analysis on global venture funding during the coronavirus pandemic. bit.ly/2Q66gH7
Asset managers at major U.S. investment firms encourage stock buying. bit.ly/3aKMomi
Workers win on Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs/31fIdM3
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to test coronavirus vaccine in 60,000 volunteers. reut.rs/31dXz3G
Delay in fiscal support is negative for the US economy and consumer facing sectors. bit.ly/31dAVsd
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) hit sales record on the online shopping surge. reut.rs/3l04PIn
Market rally has more to do with asset inflation, which is fueled by liquidity support. bit.ly/2EiNPw6
Corporations will assume the burden of safety, rising costs and lowering capacity. bit.ly/32fzTvj
People ready to start their household growing again, builders are playing catch up. bloom.bg/3l6d7yk
General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) bets on electric Cadillacs, micro vans. reut.rs/2Qb9vwY
Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) expects slower cash burn as bookings improve. reut.rs/3hpJe9S
Fed policymakers see more easing ahead to help brace economy, sustain recovery. reut.rs/2Yf9FHO
OPEC+ pressed oil nations pumping above targets to cut more in August-September. reut.rs/3kZOaEF
Lowe’s Companies Inc (NYSE: LOW) beats sales expectations on spending surge. reut.rs/3l0uReq
NY Fed’s index of real-time economic data showed a significant rise in its first revision. bit.ly/3j5XBkv
Inflation is happening in the basket of goods that excludes food, fuel and housing. bloom.bg/3aD9gE8
Analysis confirms the picture of rising income inequality and slowing income growth. brook.gs/34er33w
Sentiment: 30.4% Bullish, 27.2% Neutral, 42.4% Bearish as of 8/19/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,109,556,133 as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42% as of 8/21/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Snapshot:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY SPXNasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ NDXRussell 2000 (RTY):
IWM RUTGold (GC):
GLD GDX GOLDCrude Oil (CL):
USO DBO USO USOILTreasury Bonds (ZB):
TLTDisclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This page is where we look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. Feel free to comment if you have questions, concerns, or suggestions. Everyone can improve, so speak up if you see something wrong!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This page is where we look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. Feel free to comment if you have questions, concerns, or suggestions. Everyone can improve, so speak up if you see something wrong!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.