I have taken an anticipation entry at 4563.75 on the hourly RTH chart using the pattern of a bearish rising wedge in a down channel and the three-push pattern at the top of the wedge.
I am using ATR indicator as well to anticipate a breakout and increased volatility. Volatility expands on a down move. Notice the bullish falling wedge on the ATR signaling a breakout.
I have reason to believe that the market's objective is down there at 3950-4000 area.
My stop loss is a one bar stop above the high of the pin bar of Wednesday November 22nd at 09:30am EST. That gives me a 20 point stop with a potential reward of 500 points. Potential 28:1
This will be a reversal trade. The short term momentum is bullish but the trend is still bearish medium term. Long term I am still bullish to 5250. This will be a counter trend trade to the overall bullish move I am waiting for.
I am using ATR indicator as well to anticipate a breakout and increased volatility. Volatility expands on a down move. Notice the bullish falling wedge on the ATR signaling a breakout.
I have reason to believe that the market's objective is down there at 3950-4000 area.
My stop loss is a one bar stop above the high of the pin bar of Wednesday November 22nd at 09:30am EST. That gives me a 20 point stop with a potential reward of 500 points. Potential 28:1
This will be a reversal trade. The short term momentum is bullish but the trend is still bearish medium term. Long term I am still bullish to 5250. This will be a counter trend trade to the overall bullish move I am waiting for.
Note
The measured move takes it down to 4050 into the peak formation low from earlier this year and to potentially take out stops from the higher level longs. I think 3950 might be a too aggressive target and I will scale it back to around 4080Note
Note
Trade active
Still holding this short down to the 4050-4100 area. Expecting this would be a 3 month hold at least until February
Trade closed: stop reached
Stopped out. Still have the same thesis just wrong entry/timing
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.