History Lessons
The global recession of 2025 has started, and it's time to evaluate how previous global crises, initiated primarily by the U.S. economy, have impacted the world's leading economies over the past 25 years. Historical data reveals the most resilient and vulnerable economies during periods of global instability.
📌 Most Resilient Economy (by crisis resilience):
Russia is identified as the most resilient economy, uniquely demonstrating significant growth (+187%) during the global crisis of 2001. Russia's average result across the three crises is +26%, making it the only country in the list with a positive average during crisis periods.
This remarkable growth in Russia in 2001 resulted from a rapid recovery following the 1998 crisis, significant increases in oil prices, and an influx of foreign investments following the ruble's devaluation. These factors enabled the Russian market not only to withstand but also significantly grow, distinguishing it from other global markets.
📌 The Weakest Economies (by crisis resilience):
Germany and France were the weakest, each experiencing an average drawdown of 55%. Germany notably suffered a substantial drop of 72% in 2001, underscoring its vulnerability to global economic shocks.
This vulnerability arises because German and French economies heavily depend on exports and international trade, making them particularly sensitive to declines in global demand and economic instability.
📌 Overall Resilience Ranking (from strongest to weakest):
🇷🇺 Russia (+26%) ✅ (only country with positive average due to recovery in 2001)
🇨🇳 China (-43%) (least vulnerable among other countries)
🇬🇧 UK (-45%)
🇺🇸 USA (-48%)
🇮🇳 India (-50%)
🇯🇵 Japan (-52%)
🇫🇷 France (-55%) ❌
🇩🇪 Germany (-55%) ❌
📌 Assessment of Other Assets:
Oil exhibited deep drawdowns across all crises (average -69%), confirming its high sensitivity to global economic instability and demand shocks.
Bitcoin experienced a moderate decline (-53%) during the 2020 crisis, comparable to equity markets of developed countries.
📌 Additional Observations:
Russia, despite showing positive performance, remains heavily reliant on commodity markets (primarily oil and gas). Its exceptional performance in 2001 resulted from unique recovery circumstances following the severe internal crisis of 1998.
Over the long term, the U.S. economy remains the most diversified, stable, and resilient due to its market size, robust financial infrastructure, and high degree of diversification.
In conclusion, based on crisis drawdown data, Russia appears as the strongest economy, while Germany and France were the weakest. Among alternative assets, oil proved to be the most volatile.
The global recession of 2025 has started, and it's time to evaluate how previous global crises, initiated primarily by the U.S. economy, have impacted the world's leading economies over the past 25 years. Historical data reveals the most resilient and vulnerable economies during periods of global instability.
📌 Most Resilient Economy (by crisis resilience):
Russia is identified as the most resilient economy, uniquely demonstrating significant growth (+187%) during the global crisis of 2001. Russia's average result across the three crises is +26%, making it the only country in the list with a positive average during crisis periods.
This remarkable growth in Russia in 2001 resulted from a rapid recovery following the 1998 crisis, significant increases in oil prices, and an influx of foreign investments following the ruble's devaluation. These factors enabled the Russian market not only to withstand but also significantly grow, distinguishing it from other global markets.
📌 The Weakest Economies (by crisis resilience):
Germany and France were the weakest, each experiencing an average drawdown of 55%. Germany notably suffered a substantial drop of 72% in 2001, underscoring its vulnerability to global economic shocks.
This vulnerability arises because German and French economies heavily depend on exports and international trade, making them particularly sensitive to declines in global demand and economic instability.
📌 Overall Resilience Ranking (from strongest to weakest):
🇷🇺 Russia (+26%) ✅ (only country with positive average due to recovery in 2001)
🇨🇳 China (-43%) (least vulnerable among other countries)
🇬🇧 UK (-45%)
🇺🇸 USA (-48%)
🇮🇳 India (-50%)
🇯🇵 Japan (-52%)
🇫🇷 France (-55%) ❌
🇩🇪 Germany (-55%) ❌
📌 Assessment of Other Assets:
Oil exhibited deep drawdowns across all crises (average -69%), confirming its high sensitivity to global economic instability and demand shocks.
Bitcoin experienced a moderate decline (-53%) during the 2020 crisis, comparable to equity markets of developed countries.
📌 Additional Observations:
Russia, despite showing positive performance, remains heavily reliant on commodity markets (primarily oil and gas). Its exceptional performance in 2001 resulted from unique recovery circumstances following the severe internal crisis of 1998.
Over the long term, the U.S. economy remains the most diversified, stable, and resilient due to its market size, robust financial infrastructure, and high degree of diversification.
In conclusion, based on crisis drawdown data, Russia appears as the strongest economy, while Germany and France were the weakest. Among alternative assets, oil proved to be the most volatile.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.