After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking.
Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows.
Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts.
FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme Greed is in trade.
Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!"
While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly.
Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly.
Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term cross-current.
It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range?
That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes.
A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru this level.
Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030 to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th.
Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they are calling Bullsh_t.
Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent.
HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners.
Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen serve it up.
RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot.
Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care.
September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year.
Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss.
NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical has arrived.
The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control on the Curve.
TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings going to Snap.
A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile. Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation on schedule.
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