1) I told everyone not to go long until congress decides to rescind all of the tariffs
2) I said the futures gap might not fill for an extended period of time, but all gaps will fill. This one will not happen until the tariffs are rescinded by congress or the next president, lol.
3) I said like COVID, this drop will probably break a lot of rules. So far it's broken the gap rule, 3hr indicator, double index gap (SPX daily index doesn't usually throw gaps 2 days in a row, and if it does it fills them them within days).
4) I assume it will break daily and weekly indicators as well, so I'm not even gonna post plots.
5) The algos are on, but broken. You can see that the market zig zagged multiple times today as the algos tried to pump the market, but there were way too many retail investors that sold. EOD (end of day) selling indicates people going cash in their 401k. Extremely rare for the market to drop EOD on Fridays like that. Usually there's at least some bounce.
Anyways, you can see 3hr indicators flatlined at the bottom, the same can happen with daily and weekly indicators. We were close to circuit breaker level today. We may hit it next week if congress doesn't do something. That's the unknown factor that kept me from shorting the market over the weekend. If not, we may see yet another futures gap Sunday night and the circuit breaker. Remember we hit it multiple times during COVID bottom.
2) I said the futures gap might not fill for an extended period of time, but all gaps will fill. This one will not happen until the tariffs are rescinded by congress or the next president, lol.
3) I said like COVID, this drop will probably break a lot of rules. So far it's broken the gap rule, 3hr indicator, double index gap (SPX daily index doesn't usually throw gaps 2 days in a row, and if it does it fills them them within days).
4) I assume it will break daily and weekly indicators as well, so I'm not even gonna post plots.
5) The algos are on, but broken. You can see that the market zig zagged multiple times today as the algos tried to pump the market, but there were way too many retail investors that sold. EOD (end of day) selling indicates people going cash in their 401k. Extremely rare for the market to drop EOD on Fridays like that. Usually there's at least some bounce.
Anyways, you can see 3hr indicators flatlined at the bottom, the same can happen with daily and weekly indicators. We were close to circuit breaker level today. We may hit it next week if congress doesn't do something. That's the unknown factor that kept me from shorting the market over the weekend. If not, we may see yet another futures gap Sunday night and the circuit breaker. Remember we hit it multiple times during COVID bottom.
Note
The algos are playing the daily indicators and getting burned big time. Play this like COVID. Do not rely on indicators, just chart pattern and news.Also, it takes 2/3 of both houses to override a presidential veto. I don't expect Congress to repeal the tariffs for 2 weeks, minimum plus another 10 days that Trump can stall before sending the veto. They will eventually when store shelves go empty and millions of factory workers get laid off because of lack of parts.
The best part? Algos are still buying afterhours today, lol. Reality hasn't sunk in yet.
I've already posted it multiple times, but if you need anything made in China or that has parts made in China, go shopping right now. Parts suppliers will not be paying 104% tariff. That's obviously a money losing proposition for a fixed price contract. Getting sued for not honoring a contract is much more palatable than bankruptcy.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.