SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 3831
BOT 3578
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 3831
BOT 3578
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
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🔻Blog: hercules.money/blog/
🔻Telegram : t.me/hercules_trading
🔻Discord: discord.gg/hudcJvcCAq
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