Final bear market rally for 2022, SPX to 4300 by year end?
Seeing some matching patterns here to put this together.
Up:
1) Going higher than 200 DMA will give bulls hope
2) 50% retrace from bottom lets people think we have finished this bear market
3) Now 80% odds for 50bps
4) Roughly 60 days would be in line + 20% return
5) Favoured seasonality for a Christmas rally
Then down:
6) Everyone forgot about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (now lowest since 1984!), energy issues in Europe (Russia will mess with gas again)
7) 50bps I think is unlikely so we will see 75bps. FOMC is Dec 13-14, so I will target there
8) We're still in a bear market and volume will top out for another downward move
9) Cramer + Tom Lee will call for 5100 at the top
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Related:
- Bear market investment strategies book: amzn.to/3ULtZMd
- 20%+ rally would be in line with the past:
fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/BearMarketRallies_02_2010_V2LP.pdf
- Bear market rallies: forbes.com/sites/randywatts/2022/06/23/forbes-bear-market-rallies
- Strategic Petroleum reserves: eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
- Energy in Europe: graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/
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Daily returns
Plan for 2020-2030
Up:
1) Going higher than 200 DMA will give bulls hope
2) 50% retrace from bottom lets people think we have finished this bear market
3) Now 80% odds for 50bps
4) Roughly 60 days would be in line + 20% return
5) Favoured seasonality for a Christmas rally
Then down:
6) Everyone forgot about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (now lowest since 1984!), energy issues in Europe (Russia will mess with gas again)
7) 50bps I think is unlikely so we will see 75bps. FOMC is Dec 13-14, so I will target there
8) We're still in a bear market and volume will top out for another downward move
9) Cramer + Tom Lee will call for 5100 at the top
---
Related:
- Bear market investment strategies book: amzn.to/3ULtZMd
- 20%+ rally would be in line with the past:
fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/BearMarketRallies_02_2010_V2LP.pdf
- Bear market rallies: forbes.com/sites/randywatts/2022/06/23/forbes-bear-market-rallies
- Strategic Petroleum reserves: eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
- Energy in Europe: graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/
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Daily returns
Plan for 2020-2030
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