The market is ADDICTED
The idea here is nice and simple. The market only reacts to policy changes. Real policy changes and not rumors. Seeing how the market is neutral at the same time that a major shift in monetary policy is (allegedly) about to take place, we can conclude one of two things:
1) market stays under the red line:
They are about to let the market have a complete insane withdrawal, collapse, and coma. It's not uncommon during an opiate detox to be strapped down to a bed FOR DAYS. The market has not felt withdrawal yet and is still in complete denial of its addiction. The first phase is an illusion of normality right before the withdrawal symptoms kick in, and this market "crash" actually becomes a real crash. Notice how people are calling it a crash but are still bullish, because they haven't lost everything? There's your sign. Excess liquidity is STILL in the system.
2) market stays above the green line:
They lull the market into another great high with more sweet sweet synthetic drugs, ie. lack of criteria and policy changes which extends the bull run for 6-12 months. The SEC is in a coma and Gary Gensler gets paid to sleep, FED is playing musical chairs while the public turns Powell into a meme (nobody would know his face otherwise). Even Warren Buffet scammed the public by buying 1B in Activision stock right before the merger with insider information. Oh yeah and by the way, the FED looks like it's about to own ALL of the bonds. Scams, scams, scams. Tesla has a PE ratio of 300, but don't worry, we'll keep calling cryptos "volatile" even though our precious Facebook, Peloton, Netflix, yadda yadda are just as volatile if not more. Not to mention everyone's retirement and pension levered up on tech stocks. Meanwhile these FED chairs are talking about monetary policy like it's an elementary school rumor. Whispering different things to the media, whispering different things to the public, all the while, they have STILL yet to come up with ANY comprehensive criteria for their actions, as well as ANY well defined course of action. Just an absolute joke. So why not pump up stocks until the whole thing collapses? If there is no plan, why not break that plan?
Personally, I would weight 1 a bit higher than 2 just by looking at the actions of many big players. But who knows, maybe it's 1999? Doesn't seem like it. But with all the fake money around, I can see the merit of #2. On a side note, gold actually looks like it's worth buying for the first time in a long time. Probably an omen.
Stay safe out there.
1) market stays under the red line:
They are about to let the market have a complete insane withdrawal, collapse, and coma. It's not uncommon during an opiate detox to be strapped down to a bed FOR DAYS. The market has not felt withdrawal yet and is still in complete denial of its addiction. The first phase is an illusion of normality right before the withdrawal symptoms kick in, and this market "crash" actually becomes a real crash. Notice how people are calling it a crash but are still bullish, because they haven't lost everything? There's your sign. Excess liquidity is STILL in the system.
2) market stays above the green line:
They lull the market into another great high with more sweet sweet synthetic drugs, ie. lack of criteria and policy changes which extends the bull run for 6-12 months. The SEC is in a coma and Gary Gensler gets paid to sleep, FED is playing musical chairs while the public turns Powell into a meme (nobody would know his face otherwise). Even Warren Buffet scammed the public by buying 1B in Activision stock right before the merger with insider information. Oh yeah and by the way, the FED looks like it's about to own ALL of the bonds. Scams, scams, scams. Tesla has a PE ratio of 300, but don't worry, we'll keep calling cryptos "volatile" even though our precious Facebook, Peloton, Netflix, yadda yadda are just as volatile if not more. Not to mention everyone's retirement and pension levered up on tech stocks. Meanwhile these FED chairs are talking about monetary policy like it's an elementary school rumor. Whispering different things to the media, whispering different things to the public, all the while, they have STILL yet to come up with ANY comprehensive criteria for their actions, as well as ANY well defined course of action. Just an absolute joke. So why not pump up stocks until the whole thing collapses? If there is no plan, why not break that plan?
Personally, I would weight 1 a bit higher than 2 just by looking at the actions of many big players. But who knows, maybe it's 1999? Doesn't seem like it. But with all the fake money around, I can see the merit of #2. On a side note, gold actually looks like it's worth buying for the first time in a long time. Probably an omen.
Stay safe out there.
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