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S&P 500 E-mini Futures

Market Review for October 11 2022

By DrSpymaster
Updated
snapshot

Assessment: Oct 10 2022 Daily Chart (prior day pre charting)

  • Take a look at the ES most recent low at 3571 vs NQ most recent low at 10890. On Oct 10, NQ took the lowest low whereas ES does not. This is called divergence between ES/NQ.
  • This suggests that if ES cannot take the October low, we would go up to fill in the fair value gaps (FVG) above. The caveat to this is that ES does not necessarily have to take the October low now to confirm this (i.e. a fully confirmed divergence requires hindsight). We can use this divergence in an intraday setting for a daytrade as it provides bullish direction.


There are 2 main areas of liquidity for Oct 11 for ES I am interested in
  • Bear side: 3600 (prior day low), 3571 (Oct low)
  • Bull side: Volume gap at 3638 - 3653


Plan:

  • If we have ongoing pressure Oct 11 intraday, we would watch for the prior day low to get run. If we cannot take out the Oct low at 3571 then we should run up to fill the volume gap.


Post-Mortem Analysis:
  • Overnight session (midnight to 9:30 NY open) took 3600 liquidity with 2 equal lows making this a ripe target
  • At 8:30AM, we entered into a supply zone and through a FVG (not drawn) and reversed course to hit those equal lows formed overnight
  • After sell side liquidity was taken, we see a shift upwards with a target of overnight high and the volume gap up to 3653.25 which ended up being the top tick.
    Around 2PM EST, some news was released by BOE and we started reversing course. Once you see a shift in market trend, you want to start looking to enter sells.


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Note
Pre-market analysis of ES for Oct 12 2022:
  • The volume gap high at 3653 is now also the daily high meaning it is a high value target for PPI numbers to run liquidity. This is the main target for bull side.
  • The daily low at 3579 is an easy target on the sell side which if run should target the 3571 October low
  • Second bear target is ~3542 which marks significant liquidity from Nov 2020. If PPI numbers are bad, I think this is a highly likely target.
Trend Analysis
DrSpymaster

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