Reviewing Trends and their behavior during Recessions
While retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal.
To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend Signal occurred, is during the recessions. Even during the beginning of Covid, the Weekly Downtrend Signal hit at 2983, but the rapid rise back up and the calculation of trends would have signaled the Weekly Uptrend at 3276.
An overall boost in the economy from here for the rest of the year would make this nothing more than a downturn. That doesn't really add up when looking at the overall state of the economy, at least not from my perspective. Many factors are worse than the last recession (Literally called the "Great Recession" because of how rough it was), and the next few months in terms of inflation falling without unemployment rising above 5% could be real factors to watch.
To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend Signal occurred, is during the recessions. Even during the beginning of Covid, the Weekly Downtrend Signal hit at 2983, but the rapid rise back up and the calculation of trends would have signaled the Weekly Uptrend at 3276.
An overall boost in the economy from here for the rest of the year would make this nothing more than a downturn. That doesn't really add up when looking at the overall state of the economy, at least not from my perspective. Many factors are worse than the last recession (Literally called the "Great Recession" because of how rough it was), and the next few months in terms of inflation falling without unemployment rising above 5% could be real factors to watch.
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