Trends hitting resistance going up; Will NVidia Crash through?
Updated
So the NVidia story could really disrupt the narrative that trends were pushing. Personally, while I like the optimism for NVidia, I can't say I'd want to get in at 230% valuation gain on the year. However, what do I know? I trade S&P Futures, not NVidia stocks.
Ultimately I still think the overbought tech sector can't continue to carry the entire market, and that people are going to cash out at least for the moment some time soon, perhaps as we near the contract settling point of early June.
I attempted to go short at the lower high 30m at the close of yesterday and was stopped out, and I am not short again at the 1hr lower high at 4164.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I have no trends other than the Daily timeline in an uptrend at all. So I can't say I'm confident in any longs here. There is an upward trendline that comes in around 4140, so I suppose there is that... but overall I think we head sideways before we head up.
The Short Position;
The most recent short spot is 4164. A break below that trendline at 4140 is a late entry, or wait for things to turn negative at 4126ish. I like my entry point, it is why I stayed out all day yesterday to get this spot.
Economic Data;
Job Market remains robust, GDP slowing but above expectations, PCE showing potential flatline or increased inflationary data, and housing market is still flatlined. None of this makes me jump into the narrative there will be rate cuts coming this month.
Earnings;
NVidia annihilated their earnings expectations and provided some pretty robust forward guidance. That is a continue developing story I will be following. Costco reports after the close.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
I am Long on the 6E, so I do have some optimism =)
Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
Ultimately I still think the overbought tech sector can't continue to carry the entire market, and that people are going to cash out at least for the moment some time soon, perhaps as we near the contract settling point of early June.
I attempted to go short at the lower high 30m at the close of yesterday and was stopped out, and I am not short again at the 1hr lower high at 4164.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I have no trends other than the Daily timeline in an uptrend at all. So I can't say I'm confident in any longs here. There is an upward trendline that comes in around 4140, so I suppose there is that... but overall I think we head sideways before we head up.
The Short Position;
The most recent short spot is 4164. A break below that trendline at 4140 is a late entry, or wait for things to turn negative at 4126ish. I like my entry point, it is why I stayed out all day yesterday to get this spot.
Economic Data;
Job Market remains robust, GDP slowing but above expectations, PCE showing potential flatline or increased inflationary data, and housing market is still flatlined. None of this makes me jump into the narrative there will be rate cuts coming this month.
Earnings;
NVidia annihilated their earnings expectations and provided some pretty robust forward guidance. That is a continue developing story I will be following. Costco reports after the close.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
I am Long on the 6E, so I do have some optimism =)
Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
Note
I was willing to suffer through the last time we popped up here, but at this point I've cashed out for $500 at 4154. I'll see what tomorrow brings. Safe trading!
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