ES1! - 4hr
My red diagonal for wave 4 has almost run out of room. Over 2807.25 it will be discarded as noted in purple text.
I'm still carrying the yellow count as a possibility - two interpretations shown. First, wave (c) of cir-b is completing in an ending diagonal which will be capped at 2825. Over this level, wave v of (c) will be longer than wave iii. Wave iii can't be the shortest as that would violate Elliott Wave principles; however, wave iii doesn't have to be the longest in an ending diagonal. It just can't be the shortest. (This ED would also apply to red (d) of 4 by the way.) Secondly, (c) of cir-b may just be a step in a longer running triangle. Running triangles are most often seen in strong underlying trends (see the strength of wave 3?) and run in the direction of the larger trend, so I'm considering it viable. They almost always occur in a position prior to the final wave in the patter of the larger degree. Now, that would apply to all of yellow wave 4 and not just cir-b of 4. Still, a triangle in a b-wave isn't unusual so I'm carrying this as a possible - if improbable - possibility to remind myself not to leverage short for cir-c of yellow 4. This second alternative to the yellow count is indicated with (e) of "alt cir-b" on the chart.
Lastly, I've got a green "immediately bullish" count which suggests wave 4 completed in an awkwardly short triangle. I've shown cir-i much higher but I'd allow that cir-i - ii may have completed with another i-ii setting up (not shown). If so, the next correction for ii would set up a strong rally in iii of cir-iii of 5; stops below 2675 es. I'm not 'all in' on this green count as there was no obvious completion of wave 4. Market needs to convince me.
I'm still carrying the yellow count as a possibility - two interpretations shown. First, wave (c) of cir-b is completing in an ending diagonal which will be capped at 2825. Over this level, wave v of (c) will be longer than wave iii. Wave iii can't be the shortest as that would violate Elliott Wave principles; however, wave iii doesn't have to be the longest in an ending diagonal. It just can't be the shortest. (This ED would also apply to red (d) of 4 by the way.) Secondly, (c) of cir-b may just be a step in a longer running triangle. Running triangles are most often seen in strong underlying trends (see the strength of wave 3?) and run in the direction of the larger trend, so I'm considering it viable. They almost always occur in a position prior to the final wave in the patter of the larger degree. Now, that would apply to all of yellow wave 4 and not just cir-b of 4. Still, a triangle in a b-wave isn't unusual so I'm carrying this as a possible - if improbable - possibility to remind myself not to leverage short for cir-c of yellow 4. This second alternative to the yellow count is indicated with (e) of "alt cir-b" on the chart.
Lastly, I've got a green "immediately bullish" count which suggests wave 4 completed in an awkwardly short triangle. I've shown cir-i much higher but I'd allow that cir-i - ii may have completed with another i-ii setting up (not shown). If so, the next correction for ii would set up a strong rally in iii of cir-iii of 5; stops below 2675 es. I'm not 'all in' on this green count as there was no obvious completion of wave 4. Market needs to convince me.
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