A Pullback or More to Come?
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5521.50, down 24.50 on Friday and 12.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,927.25, down 112.25 on Friday and 55.50 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures set fresh intraday highs on Friday but quickly faded after trapping those who bought on the heels of supportive economic data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, was in line with expectations, and the Personal Spending component was light, which further supported the narrative of a tiring consumer after Q1 GDP showed a revision lower in Consumer Spending. Furthermore, June's final Michigan Consumer dataset revised 1-year inflation expectations lower to 3.0% from 3.3%. At that point, all the excitement was captured, and 10 minutes after the Michigan release, on the final day of the quarter, the tape exuded clear buyers’ exhaustion. Within two hours, the opening bell range had been surrendered.
The ensuing weakness certainly set the stage for perma-bears to spread their wings over the weekend (social media and pundit articles); yup, those who have been calling for the market to correct since sub-4000 S&P, and will act as if they were right upon the next healthy 5% consolidation. We do believe traders must carry a sense of caution as the new quarter, amid a holiday and data-heavy week, gets underway, but we invited Friday’s tradable range and weakness as it helped to further define support. We have major three-star support in the S&P aligning our previous pocket with Friday’s gap settlement at 5516-5521.50. Although we do have two additional areas of critical support defined at 5498.75-5503 and 5589.75-5592.75, we do realize an extended period of time below 5516-5521.50 after the first hour of trade would help encourage a prolonged healthy pullback through the middle of the week that could extend as low as 5400. Until then we must remain cautiously Bullish in Bias.
Traders must gear up for ISM Manufacturing today at 9:00 am CT and ISM Services on Wednesday.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5541.50**, 5547.25-5552.75***, 5563.75**, 5576.75***, 5583-5588***, 5620.75**,
Pivot: 5535.50
Support: 5516-5521.50***, 5510.25-5511.75**, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75***, 5465.60***, 5448.25-5449.25***, 5427.50-5430.75***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 20,039**, 20,070-20,075**, 20,116-20,130**, 20,178-20,197**, 20,215-20,228*, 20,247-20,274***, 20,371**
Pivot: 19,985
Support: 19,901-19,927***, 19,832-19,856**, 19,792**, 19,732-19,757****, 19,649**, 19,426-19,497****
Micro Bitcoin (July)
Last week’s close: Settled at 60,325, down 1,520 on Friday and 4,485 on the week
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 64,362-64,810***
Pivot: 62,995-63,015
Support: 62,254**, 61,010-61,320***, 60,325-60,390****, 59,590***, 58,130-58,845****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5521.50, down 24.50 on Friday and 12.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,927.25, down 112.25 on Friday and 55.50 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures set fresh intraday highs on Friday but quickly faded after trapping those who bought on the heels of supportive economic data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, was in line with expectations, and the Personal Spending component was light, which further supported the narrative of a tiring consumer after Q1 GDP showed a revision lower in Consumer Spending. Furthermore, June's final Michigan Consumer dataset revised 1-year inflation expectations lower to 3.0% from 3.3%. At that point, all the excitement was captured, and 10 minutes after the Michigan release, on the final day of the quarter, the tape exuded clear buyers’ exhaustion. Within two hours, the opening bell range had been surrendered.
The ensuing weakness certainly set the stage for perma-bears to spread their wings over the weekend (social media and pundit articles); yup, those who have been calling for the market to correct since sub-4000 S&P, and will act as if they were right upon the next healthy 5% consolidation. We do believe traders must carry a sense of caution as the new quarter, amid a holiday and data-heavy week, gets underway, but we invited Friday’s tradable range and weakness as it helped to further define support. We have major three-star support in the S&P aligning our previous pocket with Friday’s gap settlement at 5516-5521.50. Although we do have two additional areas of critical support defined at 5498.75-5503 and 5589.75-5592.75, we do realize an extended period of time below 5516-5521.50 after the first hour of trade would help encourage a prolonged healthy pullback through the middle of the week that could extend as low as 5400. Until then we must remain cautiously Bullish in Bias.
Traders must gear up for ISM Manufacturing today at 9:00 am CT and ISM Services on Wednesday.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5541.50**, 5547.25-5552.75***, 5563.75**, 5576.75***, 5583-5588***, 5620.75**,
Pivot: 5535.50
Support: 5516-5521.50***, 5510.25-5511.75**, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75***, 5465.60***, 5448.25-5449.25***, 5427.50-5430.75***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 20,039**, 20,070-20,075**, 20,116-20,130**, 20,178-20,197**, 20,215-20,228*, 20,247-20,274***, 20,371**
Pivot: 19,985
Support: 19,901-19,927***, 19,832-19,856**, 19,792**, 19,732-19,757****, 19,649**, 19,426-19,497****
Micro Bitcoin (July)
Last week’s close: Settled at 60,325, down 1,520 on Friday and 4,485 on the week
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 64,362-64,810***
Pivot: 62,995-63,015
Support: 62,254**, 61,010-61,320***, 60,325-60,390****, 59,590***, 58,130-58,845****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.