Plan for Friday:
Supports:
• Major: 5842, 5825, 5805-07, 5787, 5763, 5756, 5746, 5725-29, 5711, 5690
• Minor: 5853, 5848, 5838, 5818, 5814, 5798, 5783, 5774, 5768, 5751, 5740, 5733, 5715, 5702, 5695
Overview:
Today was a straightforward backtest of 5864 followed by a dip, then a return to that level, marking a typical rangebound day. We are now in a new consolidation range between 5865-68 and 5825. Trading within this range could be tricky and highly technical, so predicting is a losing strategy. For tomorrow, I’ll trade light, expecting continued chop unless the 5865-68 resistance clears.
Key Zones for Tomorrow:
• 5842 is the first support down but is now less reliable due to today’s battleground. If ES dips to 5838 and reclaims it, I may consider going long, but only if no new highs above today’s peak are made first.
• Below 5838, expect a fast flush to 5825 (major support). I’d consider a long here if there’s a failed breakdown of today’s low (~5822), meaning a recovery above 5825 after a brief flush. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that bears still have control, and longs become riskier. The next key long interest is 5805-07 or failed breakdowns of yesterday’s low.
• Deeper support for long interest would be 5756 if we see a larger flush.
Resistances:
• Major: 5865-68, 5882, 5890-92, 5910, 5919, 5945-47, 5971
• Minor: 5861, 5878, 5886, 5899, 5902, 5907, 5914, 5927, 5933, 5940, 5958, 5966
We haven’t cleared the significant 5865-68 resistance yet. Even if we pop up there tomorrow, another dip is likely before any breakout. If we do break through, we could see a squeeze up to 5882, potentially followed by a dip before pushing higher to 5892. If the breakout continues, we may see a push toward new ATHs in the next leg up.
For those interested in shorting, 5882 is a potential level. However, I won’t be shorting above 5865-68.
Buyers Case Tomorrow:
Buyers case would see ES continue to consolidate between 5825 and 5865 before breaking to the upside. The scenario would likely involve a pop to 5865-68, followed by one more dip (could be significant or small), and then a breakout targeting 5882 and 5892. Afterward, a dip may happen before pushing higher toward ATHs.
• I’ll keep an eye on 5842 for long opportunities on dips and potential recoveries at 5848.
Sellers Case Tomorrow:
Sellers need to break 5825 to regain control. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that the recent dip was not a one-off. However, breakdown trades are risky as 80% of breakdowns typically trap traders. These setups require a high skill level and may fail multiple times before paying off significantly.
• I won’t chase shorts after a 30-point sell-off. I’d prefer to see 5825 tested, or a failed breakdown of today’s low before shorting under the bounce structure (possibly around 5818 or higher).
Summary for Tomorrow:
• Expect consolidation between 5825 and 5865-68 with potential ping pong price action.
• Leaning toward a pop to 5865-68, then possibly a dip before breaking out higher to 5882+.
• If 5825 fails, we could see further selling.
Trade cautiously in this consolidation range, as the price can take complex, unpredictable paths.
Supports:
• Major: 5842, 5825, 5805-07, 5787, 5763, 5756, 5746, 5725-29, 5711, 5690
• Minor: 5853, 5848, 5838, 5818, 5814, 5798, 5783, 5774, 5768, 5751, 5740, 5733, 5715, 5702, 5695
Overview:
Today was a straightforward backtest of 5864 followed by a dip, then a return to that level, marking a typical rangebound day. We are now in a new consolidation range between 5865-68 and 5825. Trading within this range could be tricky and highly technical, so predicting is a losing strategy. For tomorrow, I’ll trade light, expecting continued chop unless the 5865-68 resistance clears.
Key Zones for Tomorrow:
• 5842 is the first support down but is now less reliable due to today’s battleground. If ES dips to 5838 and reclaims it, I may consider going long, but only if no new highs above today’s peak are made first.
• Below 5838, expect a fast flush to 5825 (major support). I’d consider a long here if there’s a failed breakdown of today’s low (~5822), meaning a recovery above 5825 after a brief flush. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that bears still have control, and longs become riskier. The next key long interest is 5805-07 or failed breakdowns of yesterday’s low.
• Deeper support for long interest would be 5756 if we see a larger flush.
Resistances:
• Major: 5865-68, 5882, 5890-92, 5910, 5919, 5945-47, 5971
• Minor: 5861, 5878, 5886, 5899, 5902, 5907, 5914, 5927, 5933, 5940, 5958, 5966
We haven’t cleared the significant 5865-68 resistance yet. Even if we pop up there tomorrow, another dip is likely before any breakout. If we do break through, we could see a squeeze up to 5882, potentially followed by a dip before pushing higher to 5892. If the breakout continues, we may see a push toward new ATHs in the next leg up.
For those interested in shorting, 5882 is a potential level. However, I won’t be shorting above 5865-68.
Buyers Case Tomorrow:
Buyers case would see ES continue to consolidate between 5825 and 5865 before breaking to the upside. The scenario would likely involve a pop to 5865-68, followed by one more dip (could be significant or small), and then a breakout targeting 5882 and 5892. Afterward, a dip may happen before pushing higher toward ATHs.
• I’ll keep an eye on 5842 for long opportunities on dips and potential recoveries at 5848.
Sellers Case Tomorrow:
Sellers need to break 5825 to regain control. If 5825 fails, it could indicate that the recent dip was not a one-off. However, breakdown trades are risky as 80% of breakdowns typically trap traders. These setups require a high skill level and may fail multiple times before paying off significantly.
• I won’t chase shorts after a 30-point sell-off. I’d prefer to see 5825 tested, or a failed breakdown of today’s low before shorting under the bounce structure (possibly around 5818 or higher).
Summary for Tomorrow:
• Expect consolidation between 5825 and 5865-68 with potential ping pong price action.
• Leaning toward a pop to 5865-68, then possibly a dip before breaking out higher to 5882+.
• If 5825 fails, we could see further selling.
Trade cautiously in this consolidation range, as the price can take complex, unpredictable paths.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.