Trends in conflict; Signs support "Sell in May and Walk Away"
Updated
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
As explained in the video, the shorter-term trends are calling for lower moves, although the longer-term trends are violated and would be calling for a rebound. In spite of that conflict, I don't expect that rebound in the immediate future at this point.
I go into a longer explanation, but overall I have been shorting the market, and currently have a Short position from 5200. I am looking for this position to hit around the 5000 mark, and then may cash out and wait and see what happens at that 5000 mark. I may look for a reversal position if we head near that area.
The vibe is basically that Inflationary issues persist, geopolitical tension could cause chaos, and ultimately the US Economy is amazing and resilient.
Next week we have major earnings though, so this short move lower could be done for and we could head into a rebound then, before heading lower or at least sideways once again going into May, as we see the old trading technique of "Sell in May and Walk Away" hold true.
General Sentiment - Bearish
Overall Sentiment - Bullish
Safe Trading, and remember your risk management
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
As explained in the video, the shorter-term trends are calling for lower moves, although the longer-term trends are violated and would be calling for a rebound. In spite of that conflict, I don't expect that rebound in the immediate future at this point.
I go into a longer explanation, but overall I have been shorting the market, and currently have a Short position from 5200. I am looking for this position to hit around the 5000 mark, and then may cash out and wait and see what happens at that 5000 mark. I may look for a reversal position if we head near that area.
The vibe is basically that Inflationary issues persist, geopolitical tension could cause chaos, and ultimately the US Economy is amazing and resilient.
Next week we have major earnings though, so this short move lower could be done for and we could head into a rebound then, before heading lower or at least sideways once again going into May, as we see the old trading technique of "Sell in May and Walk Away" hold true.
General Sentiment - Bearish
Overall Sentiment - Bullish
Safe Trading, and remember your risk management
Note
For one of the first time, it appears the S&P is being somewhat buoyed by stocks that are NOT that Mag 7, as the Mag 7 is currently down around 1.3% (along with the Mag 7 heavy Nasdaq) and yet the S&P is only down (at this time) around .7%.A healthy sign of market recalibration from dumping everything into a couple baskets to a widening of the market rally.
Note
Didn't sweat the little pop today that was over as quick as it happened. Mostly downward pressure into the close. I'd like one more solid down day, and I'll likely cash out. Could get that going into the jobs data tomorrow, unless some geopolitical tension (Israel / Iran) moves things.Oil had a bit of a decline today as we stored less oil than before, but more than expected. I'll likely spend tomorrow analyzing jobs data before the open, and then trying to look at estimates on Netflix for as things go into the close.
Very hesitant on holding a short next week though due to the majority of Earnings coming in next week (Though I'd like to confirm that website is new, as it is a newer one I've been using).
Note
Just thought I'd mention that as expected, that jobs data this morning was more of the same.Trade closed: target reached
Closed out my position at 5012 for nearly a $10,000 profit.Will probably take tomorrow off and consider buying into the Earnings next week if any short term signs signal a brief rally.
Might make a video tomorrow morning after I sleep in.
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