SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The Clock
Updated
In previous threads looking at SPY:
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
Nasdaq
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
And ES
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
We've noted that both the extreme bear and extreme bull cases are dubious.
After the five day 8% rally to start the month, we warned that manipulation may be coming. Instead, we got a flat week where the October high was taken on a Friday afternoon.
The important thing for Santa rally believers, who are expecting the all time highs to be taken out, is that we're on what amounts to a pretty tight deadline, with the final day of the December candle being the deadline.
The reason for this is because the indexes went up in a straight line starting the first day of 2023, and this is not likely to repeat itself.
And so, what I believe we're in store for, is not a real Santa rally, but a fairly big 150-200 point retrace starting next week, that culminates in a rally that takes out 4,650 by year end, but goes no further.
That will mean that 2024 is a very unpleasant year for everyone, U.S. election or not.
Perhaps what will stop the Santa Rally from taking the all time highs on the indexes is the looming problems posed to the world by mankind's continued cooperation with and support of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Chinese Communist Party, under former Chairman Jiang Zemin in 1999, launched a full scale organ harvesting genocide and persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Dafa meditation.
Those sins are more eternal and boundless than what Nero and the Romans did to Jesus and his Disciples 2,500 years ago by an infinite degree, for the scale is so much larger, the importance of this moment in history is so much more significant, and Falun Gong's students being true spiritual practitioners.
Xi Jinping, because he has made himself the head of the Party and has continued to hold onto Marxism and Leninism with a deathgrip, has painted himself into a corner that he only has one way out of.
That way is to coup d'etat the CCP and get rid of it like Gorbachev and friends got rid of the USSR. But the clock is ticking. He has to do it before the Wuhan Lung Flame breaches the Emperor's bedroom.
And former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by a heart attack just a few weeks ago, and only in his 60s.
Either way, the CCP is dust in the wind, and so are all the clowns on Wall Street, governments, big corporations, and Antifa/BLM-style scum of society revolutionary groups who have been either providing blood to or taking blood from the Evil Party all these years.
And this means that markets will go up in preparation for the falling guillotine. Because it's ultimately just humans gambling against Gods.
So here's the trade.
I expect next week, and perhaps also the week after, will bring a ~4-5% retrace that sets up a month end rally into a December rally that takes out 4,600.
We won't go sideways, I suspect, but it'll chop up and down and back and forth before finally getting to the point, and so it will probably suck to trade levered ETFs and options.
Still, there's a chance to go long coming up ahead with a target above the July highs to end the year, and that is about as good as she gets, I gander.
Good luck. I hope you heed the caution about "China" and do your part to social distance and wash your hands from communism and all its related scams.
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
Nasdaq
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
And ES
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
We've noted that both the extreme bear and extreme bull cases are dubious.
After the five day 8% rally to start the month, we warned that manipulation may be coming. Instead, we got a flat week where the October high was taken on a Friday afternoon.
The important thing for Santa rally believers, who are expecting the all time highs to be taken out, is that we're on what amounts to a pretty tight deadline, with the final day of the December candle being the deadline.
The reason for this is because the indexes went up in a straight line starting the first day of 2023, and this is not likely to repeat itself.
And so, what I believe we're in store for, is not a real Santa rally, but a fairly big 150-200 point retrace starting next week, that culminates in a rally that takes out 4,650 by year end, but goes no further.
That will mean that 2024 is a very unpleasant year for everyone, U.S. election or not.
Perhaps what will stop the Santa Rally from taking the all time highs on the indexes is the looming problems posed to the world by mankind's continued cooperation with and support of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Chinese Communist Party, under former Chairman Jiang Zemin in 1999, launched a full scale organ harvesting genocide and persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Dafa meditation.
Those sins are more eternal and boundless than what Nero and the Romans did to Jesus and his Disciples 2,500 years ago by an infinite degree, for the scale is so much larger, the importance of this moment in history is so much more significant, and Falun Gong's students being true spiritual practitioners.
Xi Jinping, because he has made himself the head of the Party and has continued to hold onto Marxism and Leninism with a deathgrip, has painted himself into a corner that he only has one way out of.
That way is to coup d'etat the CCP and get rid of it like Gorbachev and friends got rid of the USSR. But the clock is ticking. He has to do it before the Wuhan Lung Flame breaches the Emperor's bedroom.
And former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by a heart attack just a few weeks ago, and only in his 60s.
Either way, the CCP is dust in the wind, and so are all the clowns on Wall Street, governments, big corporations, and Antifa/BLM-style scum of society revolutionary groups who have been either providing blood to or taking blood from the Evil Party all these years.
And this means that markets will go up in preparation for the falling guillotine. Because it's ultimately just humans gambling against Gods.
So here's the trade.
I expect next week, and perhaps also the week after, will bring a ~4-5% retrace that sets up a month end rally into a December rally that takes out 4,600.
We won't go sideways, I suspect, but it'll chop up and down and back and forth before finally getting to the point, and so it will probably suck to trade levered ETFs and options.
Still, there's a chance to go long coming up ahead with a target above the July highs to end the year, and that is about as good as she gets, I gander.
Good luck. I hope you heed the caution about "China" and do your part to social distance and wash your hands from communism and all its related scams.
Note
CPI day brings a moon mission. There are potential reversals to be found here because this gap has finally been rebalanced.But this assumes that the not-a-real-Santa-rally thesis is true.
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