Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened with a sell from the Edge towards VAH of lower HTF Range but we didn't have enough selling to get back into Previous Value where we have seen acceptance in previous week, instead we held over 6030s and pushed inside the Edge, as noted from last weeks prep to see higher prices we needed to stay around the Edge and hold over 6050s, I was thinking that this 6074 - 54 Edge would keep the price in but instead we were able to hold the Edge, got a failed breakdown from it on Tuesday RTH and a Wednesday Globex push over the Edge which couldn't get back inside during RTH Open, this move put us in new HTF Range and inside 6065 - 6115 Intraday Range. We finished the week with some sells from above VAL area and price holding above the Edge around VAL.
This Week :
As noted last week price action has changed, Volume has died out and it is really time to tighten things up and lower expectations from moves until we see new change. Going into this week we are inside 6070s - 6200s +/- HTF Range, we have buying over the lower Intraday Range and over HTF Edge, we have selling at VAL and so far attempts to push into above Value are not strong enough to give us a good break and hold over instead they find profit taking on every push. Holding over lower Edge implies stability and price can continue balancing over those areas, we can't expect too much selling from here unless we can get back under lower Intraday Edge and find Volume to get under 6050s, but we also have to be careful on the long side as we are now in distribution at higher prices on lower volume which means buyers don't have to keep chasing price up too much higher just yet. We could see price to continue holding and grinding around this new VAL area with attempts to push into new Value, inside the Value we have to be careful as until we accept inside its Mean and start transacting over it then we could continue seeing the price hold under the Mean and come out of Value towards VAL/under. I would watch for possible balancing in these 6090s - 6120s areas until we show acceptance over/under that would want to continue over the Mean or stay under lower Intraday Edge.
Last week Sunday Globex opened with a sell from the Edge towards VAH of lower HTF Range but we didn't have enough selling to get back into Previous Value where we have seen acceptance in previous week, instead we held over 6030s and pushed inside the Edge, as noted from last weeks prep to see higher prices we needed to stay around the Edge and hold over 6050s, I was thinking that this 6074 - 54 Edge would keep the price in but instead we were able to hold the Edge, got a failed breakdown from it on Tuesday RTH and a Wednesday Globex push over the Edge which couldn't get back inside during RTH Open, this move put us in new HTF Range and inside 6065 - 6115 Intraday Range. We finished the week with some sells from above VAL area and price holding above the Edge around VAL.
This Week :
As noted last week price action has changed, Volume has died out and it is really time to tighten things up and lower expectations from moves until we see new change. Going into this week we are inside 6070s - 6200s +/- HTF Range, we have buying over the lower Intraday Range and over HTF Edge, we have selling at VAL and so far attempts to push into above Value are not strong enough to give us a good break and hold over instead they find profit taking on every push. Holding over lower Edge implies stability and price can continue balancing over those areas, we can't expect too much selling from here unless we can get back under lower Intraday Edge and find Volume to get under 6050s, but we also have to be careful on the long side as we are now in distribution at higher prices on lower volume which means buyers don't have to keep chasing price up too much higher just yet. We could see price to continue holding and grinding around this new VAL area with attempts to push into new Value, inside the Value we have to be careful as until we accept inside its Mean and start transacting over it then we could continue seeing the price hold under the Mean and come out of Value towards VAL/under. I would watch for possible balancing in these 6090s - 6120s areas until we show acceptance over/under that would want to continue over the Mean or stay under lower Intraday Edge.
Note
So far Sunday Globex has made another push into VAL and showed us that we don't have the buying to stay in there for now, something to keep in mind going into this week and another scenario to watch out for IF we dont get pushes into above Value over current Interaday Range is that holding under this VAL and under 6100 will imply weakness, with low volume that we have been having we can still continue holding and balancing under it without too much selling but this can give us more of a balance/down type action in this 6100 - 6080s +/- areas until we will have enough Supply to revisit the HTF and Intraday Edge into 6070 - 60s. Holding over VAL bottom inside VAL would be needed to attempt pushes at above Intraday Edge and attempts into new Value, holding under VAL will continue building up supply and could give us moves into mid/low 80s and may eventually give us the move back to lower Edge. For now 6060s - 6115 is our Intraday Range with 80s - 100 being its Mean and price may stay around these areas with pushes out from either side coming back in until we see holds in above Value or can get back inside lower Edge to change our picture.Note
Today we got a sell back to HTF Edge where we first got a hold from covering but ended up breaking into the Edge and closing under Intraday Edge. This is a potential failure to accept in new HTF Range over 6070s which means if we stay under 6074 and under 69-64 Intraday Edge bottom that could bring in more selling to give us a move for lower VAH and if there will be enough Volume a move inside Previous Value we have accepted in inside the 6020 - 5970s Intraday Range. We will have to see how far inside we will get but areas to watch for continuation are 6050s under there if 6030s dont hold we could see push into Value. This could be a slow leak lower until we find an area where enough covering will be to hold us up. For strength to return we would need to hold over 6050s and get back over 6069 - 74 area until then we can see continued weakness back into Previous HTF Range. Note
Yesterday we had a good volume day which gave us a bigger range day than we had all last week, so far ON sessions has held inside the Edge without getting any stronger selling towards Edge bottom, doesn't mean we can't get continuation today but if we go back to lower volume today and don't have the selling to take out Edge bottom and get under 50 then its possible to go back to smaller range day and balance around the Edge and Yesterdays Daily Value without getting too much extension on either side. Stronger continuations come if we get volume under 50 or can hold over Edge top and get through 80 - 84, until then we could balance in the area between thatNote
So far market keeps failing over HTF Edge and coming back inside, we may get another balance day tomorrow around these areas but something to watch for is IF we build up enough supply around this Edge area and can't hold over Edge top and 6069 - 64 then its possible to see another move towards lower VAH, another push under Edge low under 50 could trigger more selling to target 6030s as that is where buyers are waiting for Supply, we have contract roll next week so its possible to get the volume for that move, can we tag or get into VAH will be for us to find out IF this plays out. On the other side IF we can hold over 6069 - 64 we would need to see good buying through 74 area to be able to continue balancing over the Edge top and for any strength beyond that we have to see moves over 80 - 84 that would hold over if that happens we can continue again towards above VAL to try and push into Value IF we have the buying for it but so far this week has been an inside week and last weeks buyers are not getting any upside to sell higher so we could see some more selling before the weekend if they need to get out before the roll.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.