Welcome to a new year in trends
Updated
Welcome back to my study. In the video I will wrap up how the oil contracts went (mediocre but made money), where trends are, and my two current positions in the ES and the 6A contracts.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4833 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4806 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4818 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4759 Downtrend (12/20/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Overall, I expect things to at least pullback to simmer, though I'm not convinced in a major downturn at this point.
Economic Data;
Some manufacturing data and JOLTs Job numbers today, both this morning.
Earnings;
So, my earnings website is not working. Not sure if something happened to it over the month or it is just a snafu. I will look around for another if it doesn't come back.
Geopolitical;
Iran has deployed a warship to the Red Sea in support of Yemen, whom the US has deployed forces to contain. Could cause some issues, and if so, expect concerns about supply chains more than are already there.
The big question I have is what area of the business cycle are we in, since the recession I (and many others) expected has never happened, or at least not happened yet.
If I cash out on my 6A contracts today (just want a bit more) I will be keeping an eye on ZS (Soybeans) for my next entry.
Overall my outlook is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Bullish
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4833 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4806 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4818 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4808 Downtrend (12/29/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4759 Downtrend (12/20/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Overall, I expect things to at least pullback to simmer, though I'm not convinced in a major downturn at this point.
Economic Data;
Some manufacturing data and JOLTs Job numbers today, both this morning.
Earnings;
So, my earnings website is not working. Not sure if something happened to it over the month or it is just a snafu. I will look around for another if it doesn't come back.
Geopolitical;
Iran has deployed a warship to the Red Sea in support of Yemen, whom the US has deployed forces to contain. Could cause some issues, and if so, expect concerns about supply chains more than are already there.
The big question I have is what area of the business cycle are we in, since the recession I (and many others) expected has never happened, or at least not happened yet.
If I cash out on my 6A contracts today (just want a bit more) I will be keeping an eye on ZS (Soybeans) for my next entry.
Overall my outlook is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Bullish
Note
I did cash out my two 6A contracts, each netted 1100. Not a bad start to the year for a minor contract investment.Note
Not sure a new video is needed. My position remains the same, with potentially just taking profit if things manage to rebound today more than an overall calm and sideways move.ADP NonFarm Payroll and Jobless Claims would be your main market movers, with Crude Oil Inventories a secondary if it comes in lower than expected and gas prices edge higher picking up "inflation for longer" vibes that reduce this excessive rate cut mentality priced into the market.
Note
Side note, my typical site that shows upcoming Corporate Earnings reports is still down, I did find a new one (I even like it better, I think).Nothing major reporting this week (3 companies today, but all 'minor' large cap companies) and nothing really next week either.
Note
Looking for a final push down. Would love for it to happen and cash out prior to the payroll and unemployment data today so I don't have to worry about a bizarre reaction messing up my target. We shall see.Note
Very strong market data. I cashed out at 4704 to make my $6000. Not a bad start on the year at over $8000 in week one. I'll take that and walk away from the market for the rest of this week. May take off Monday also and go skiing so I can digest how I want to proceed. Still eye balling ZS contracts though.From here I would lean more neutral/bullish on the S&P as we have violated lots of trends, and getting a new higher low downtrend on the Daily today also. Even if we are heading lower, I am currently expecting a small bounce over the next couple days
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