SNP Futures looking to rise?
Updated
Well today was bullish, we went up and a channel is starting to form... sort of.
Something seems off. The bottom is just a little too sharp. I don't like the idea that we come down after a brutal sell off and then just recover, some people are looking for 4480 on friday and that could be the case if we just follow this channel upward, but looking at it, it doesn't look clean to me.
There is fear, a lot of puts were sold in profit. I want to see some basing, I want to see a double bottom, I want to see some real evidence of accumulation.
I am tentatively closing shorts and adding light longs, but before I really pull the trigger on an upwards move into labor day, I need just a bit more than what we have seen so far, I don't really believe we can just sharply start heading upwards. At this rate we would be painting a double top by labor day, I really don't see that in the cards, I ask myself "why".
So I turn on my special sauce, I check the bond yields, I check the index ratios, I check the sectors, I check what insiders are doing.
HYG and BNDX are strong, so corporate bonds are good and Non-US bonds are stronger.
Utilities, Energy, Healthcare, Technology these sectors are doing good this week.
As for the last month Energy has been the big winner, that signals inflation, Bull Trap.
Insiders are buying a little bit more this week than they were the past month.
as for Options we are under the current max pain of 442.
Copper and High Yield Corporate Bonds have outperformed the SNP500 this past week.
The Sauce is a bit mixed, but overall it says we are at a bottom at least for now.
I will wait for a pullback preferably to the lower part of the channel and swap my shorts for longs.
Something seems off. The bottom is just a little too sharp. I don't like the idea that we come down after a brutal sell off and then just recover, some people are looking for 4480 on friday and that could be the case if we just follow this channel upward, but looking at it, it doesn't look clean to me.
There is fear, a lot of puts were sold in profit. I want to see some basing, I want to see a double bottom, I want to see some real evidence of accumulation.
I am tentatively closing shorts and adding light longs, but before I really pull the trigger on an upwards move into labor day, I need just a bit more than what we have seen so far, I don't really believe we can just sharply start heading upwards. At this rate we would be painting a double top by labor day, I really don't see that in the cards, I ask myself "why".
So I turn on my special sauce, I check the bond yields, I check the index ratios, I check the sectors, I check what insiders are doing.
HYG and BNDX are strong, so corporate bonds are good and Non-US bonds are stronger.
Utilities, Energy, Healthcare, Technology these sectors are doing good this week.
As for the last month Energy has been the big winner, that signals inflation, Bull Trap.
Insiders are buying a little bit more this week than they were the past month.
as for Options we are under the current max pain of 442.
Copper and High Yield Corporate Bonds have outperformed the SNP500 this past week.
The Sauce is a bit mixed, but overall it says we are at a bottom at least for now.
I will wait for a pullback preferably to the lower part of the channel and swap my shorts for longs.
Note
Update: Just my Opinion ofc.Today I dipped a toe into the long side, Tomorrow maybe a foot, if the water still feels good.
Note
Still bearish, aiming for 4450 target on FridayNote
I originally planned this channel for 2 weeks, but truth be told it goes against symmetry principle. We had a sell channel going 4 days (Tues-Friday), so the buy channel should go 4 days (Monday-Thursday). Jackson Hole starts Early Friday and I expect the channel to break on that day.I swapped my light long into extremely tight spreads, 439 - 445 or 4420-4480 in terms of futures expiring on that Friday 8/25.
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