TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESH2025) - 1/31/2025 PLAYBOOK
# 📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESH2025) – 1/31/2025 PLAYBOOK
## 🔴 SCENARIO 1 (BEARISH)
**DIRECTION:** Short
**STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bearish
**ENTRY LEVEL:** 6120–6140 (upper bound of weekly gap)
**STOP LEVEL:** 6149.25 (invalidate if hourly close above this level)
**TARGET LEVELS:**
- **Friday EOD / Midnight Open:** 6111.75
- **Target 1 for Next Week:** 6084.50
- **Target 2 for Next Week:** 6054.75
**R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution)
### EXECUTION STRATEGY
- **Rejection Confirmation:** Wait for clear rejection candles around 6120–6140.
- **Short Entries:** Establish short positions once price convincingly trades back below the Sunday Gap Open level.
- **Stop Placement:** Use 6149.25 as a hard stop (hourly close above invalidates the trade idea).
- **Scaling Out:** Partial profit at 6111.75 (Friday EOD target), hold remaining for next week’s deeper targets.
### KEY POINTS
- ES has closed its weekly opening gap and is testing the upper boundary.
- NQ remains considerably weaker and **has not** closed its opening gap, hinting at potential further downside (divergence).
- **Higher-timeframe Rejection:** If hourly candles establish a firm move below Sunday Gap Open, expect continued selling into next week.
- Any sustained hourly close above the red “Ideal Stop” level (6149.25) **invalidates** this setup.
---
## 🟢 SCENARIO 2 (BULLISH)
**DIRECTION:** Long
**STRUCTURE BIAS:** **No Trade Today** (overextended zone likely to reject)
**ENTRY LEVEL:** *No planned entry*
**STOP LEVEL:** *N/A*
**TARGET LEVEL:** *N/A*
**R/R RATIO:** *N/A*
### EXECUTION STRATEGY
- Currently **no active long setup** is planned due to overextension into a potential rejection zone.
- **Alternate Case:** If price were to **hourly close above 6149.25**, the weekly gap top could act as support. That might open a bullish opportunity, but **not** for today’s session.
### KEY POINTS
- Although an hourly close above 6149.25 would turn near-term structure bullish, the setup is **not favored** given the current market context.
- **Patience** is advised; no immediate long trades unless a clear breakout and base above the weekly gap top is confirmed.
---
## MARKET BIAS
- **SHORT TERM (Today – 1 Day):**
- **Bearish** bias as price is trading inside the weekly gap area and showing signs of rejection.
- Watching for a move back below Sunday Gap Open to confirm further downside momentum.
- **LONGER TERM (1–2 Weeks):**
- If the market fails to hold above the gap, continued selling pressure could extend toward 6084.50 and 6054.75.
- Any **hourly close** above 6149.25 would shift momentum, potentially flipping the gap into support for higher targets (not favored at this time).
---
## 🔴 SCENARIO 1 (BEARISH)
**DIRECTION:** Short
**STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bearish
**ENTRY LEVEL:** 6120–6140 (upper bound of weekly gap)
**STOP LEVEL:** 6149.25 (invalidate if hourly close above this level)
**TARGET LEVELS:**
- **Friday EOD / Midnight Open:** 6111.75
- **Target 1 for Next Week:** 6084.50
- **Target 2 for Next Week:** 6054.75
**R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution)
### EXECUTION STRATEGY
- **Rejection Confirmation:** Wait for clear rejection candles around 6120–6140.
- **Short Entries:** Establish short positions once price convincingly trades back below the Sunday Gap Open level.
- **Stop Placement:** Use 6149.25 as a hard stop (hourly close above invalidates the trade idea).
- **Scaling Out:** Partial profit at 6111.75 (Friday EOD target), hold remaining for next week’s deeper targets.
### KEY POINTS
- ES has closed its weekly opening gap and is testing the upper boundary.
- NQ remains considerably weaker and **has not** closed its opening gap, hinting at potential further downside (divergence).
- **Higher-timeframe Rejection:** If hourly candles establish a firm move below Sunday Gap Open, expect continued selling into next week.
- Any sustained hourly close above the red “Ideal Stop” level (6149.25) **invalidates** this setup.
---
## 🟢 SCENARIO 2 (BULLISH)
**DIRECTION:** Long
**STRUCTURE BIAS:** **No Trade Today** (overextended zone likely to reject)
**ENTRY LEVEL:** *No planned entry*
**STOP LEVEL:** *N/A*
**TARGET LEVEL:** *N/A*
**R/R RATIO:** *N/A*
### EXECUTION STRATEGY
- Currently **no active long setup** is planned due to overextension into a potential rejection zone.
- **Alternate Case:** If price were to **hourly close above 6149.25**, the weekly gap top could act as support. That might open a bullish opportunity, but **not** for today’s session.
### KEY POINTS
- Although an hourly close above 6149.25 would turn near-term structure bullish, the setup is **not favored** given the current market context.
- **Patience** is advised; no immediate long trades unless a clear breakout and base above the weekly gap top is confirmed.
---
## MARKET BIAS
- **SHORT TERM (Today – 1 Day):**
- **Bearish** bias as price is trading inside the weekly gap area and showing signs of rejection.
- Watching for a move back below Sunday Gap Open to confirm further downside momentum.
- **LONGER TERM (1–2 Weeks):**
- If the market fails to hold above the gap, continued selling pressure could extend toward 6084.50 and 6054.75.
- Any **hourly close** above 6149.25 would shift momentum, potentially flipping the gap into support for higher targets (not favored at this time).
---
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