IBEX 35 Triples its annual average and Performance Analysis
Cumulative performance in 2024: The Ibex 35 has maintained a remarkable performance in 2024, with a cumulative rise of 18.5% in the first nine months of the year, outperforming its historical annual average of 6.6%. This performance has consolidated the Spanish index as the strongest in Europe in this period, with a quarterly rise of 9.4%, outperforming its European peers such as the EuroStoxx 50, which posted a rise of 3.5%. Compared to the S&P500, its historical annual average is 9.5%, the DAX 10.3% and NASDAQ 18.1% (the most bullish).
Positive start to October: The start of October has been equally positive, with the index reaching new annual highs after a solid September, in which it rose 4.4%, taking the Ibex to 11,950 points, a level not seen since 2010.
General context and drivers: Although September is usually a month of market correction, this year has been an exception, as the easing of monetary policy has benefited equities, especially in more indebted sectors. This has facilitated a year-to-date rise of 16.8%.
Bullish Companies:
• IAG: IAG was the most bullish company in the quarter, up 33%.
• Financial sector: It has been key to the performance of the Ibex, with Banco Sabadell (+66% in the year) and Caixabank (+42%) standing out. Both continue to show growth opportunities due to their solid earnings and the expectation of higher credit volume and mergers that would offset the reduction in interest margins.
• Grifols: Although down 34.5% for the year, it has rebounded 59% from the March lows. A target price of 17.27 euros per share is projected, giving it a strong upside potential of 70%.
• Fluidra: followed IAG and Grifols as the third with a 21% rebound in September.
• Colonial: rose 12% in September.
• ArcelorMittal and Acerinox: Despite their falls so far this year, both have projected medium-term growth of 52% and 40%, respectively. September's rises were 11%.
• Energy and technology sectors: These are singled out by analysts as areas with potential, benefiting from the moderation in interest rates and macroeconomic momentum.
Bearish companies:
• Telefónica: Despite accumulating growth of 24.5% in 2024, its value is expected to decline by 5.7%, reflecting limited near-term growth potential.
• Inditex: The company has reached all-time highs after solid quarterly results, closing the month up 9%, but its further upside potential appears to be limited.
• Puig: fell 18.7% in September and accumulates a year-to-date loss of 21%.
Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
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