This is an extraordinarily simplified and low-precision analysis consisting of a mere trend-line analysis for the primary trend on Ethereum - the, perhaps, beloved cryptocurrency with true utility and scaleable capacity.
Nevertheless, fundamentally important and pertinent shifts in forward-looking economic activity are actively morphing the current environment and therefore influencing price action.
Perhaps, in lieu of seeking overly complex rationales, one should summon one's own knowledgebase on how markets function. Perhaps, more explicit in scope, consider performing a thought experiment where one must - simply - follow the flux of money. Where will it go, where did it come from, and the like.
I urge you to think outside of the standard bounds; at the risk of encouraging mere fringe theory, I propose one focuses on not merely capital preservation, investment in the underlying technology, or the like. Simplify the system of equations and do not attempt to defy physics. Nevertheless, one is welcome and encouraged to propose one's own rationale, theory, hypothesis, or speculation. Open discussion is welcome. Counter-arguments are encouraged - on the sole condition of absolute respect without limitation or exception - I kindly ask.