This will be a technical but deep analysis.
Most "crypto influencers" have been trying to pump Altcoins since the end of 2023 when
BTC1! started to grow coming out from the lows of that period.
Calling out "the next altseason" almost every month, and failing every time.
The thing is that they are following the crypto cycle to the letter, analyzing what happened in previous Halving years and saying that we will have the same 2020 or 2016 in 2024.
The issue with this view is that they are not taking into account bigger things, yes people, there are other markets besides our king (and most of them bigger than the crypto market). They are forgetting the cycle that goes above all. MONETARY CYCLE.
The FED is still tightening the economy (QT) as they haven't dropped the interest from 5.5% (cyan line) and they are still reducing their balance sheet (purple line). This means one thing, the money printer is not doing BRRR.
This has a big effect on the economy and especially on risky assets like crypto because they are still speculative assets (The crypto community might not like this), and if Gold gets affected by this monetary policy (Bitcoin is currently valued at $1.4tr compared to gold's $16tr market cap), well Bitcoin is affected too.
We compare this situation to 2019, the same Monetary cycle (the FED started to cut rates and, by EOY, increased their balance sheet) and a similar macroeconomic paradigm (people worried about recession after a huge growth in the markets). See how the logical answer that year was "NO to risky assets", making the total Crypto market drop, but most importantly, making ETH and especially ALTS, drop even more, falling in value against the king.
So, what can happen to BITCOIN, ETH, and ALTS in an election year, QT (quantitative tightening) cycle, Recession risk going up, and geopolitical threats to the economy?
All of this while the halving year goes on? Well, that's the right question to ask.
I forecast an ETH short-term meltdown to the 0.3-0.4 valuation against BTC in August and September. ALTCOINS may drop even harder!
what can cause this you ask?... Failed ETF launch, Mount Gox news, strong Democrats candidate, I guess we'll soon know.
Most "crypto influencers" have been trying to pump Altcoins since the end of 2023 when
BTC1! started to grow coming out from the lows of that period. Calling out "the next altseason" almost every month, and failing every time.
The thing is that they are following the crypto cycle to the letter, analyzing what happened in previous Halving years and saying that we will have the same 2020 or 2016 in 2024.
The issue with this view is that they are not taking into account bigger things, yes people, there are other markets besides our king (and most of them bigger than the crypto market). They are forgetting the cycle that goes above all. MONETARY CYCLE.
The FED is still tightening the economy (QT) as they haven't dropped the interest from 5.5% (cyan line) and they are still reducing their balance sheet (purple line). This means one thing, the money printer is not doing BRRR.
This has a big effect on the economy and especially on risky assets like crypto because they are still speculative assets (The crypto community might not like this), and if Gold gets affected by this monetary policy (Bitcoin is currently valued at $1.4tr compared to gold's $16tr market cap), well Bitcoin is affected too.
We compare this situation to 2019, the same Monetary cycle (the FED started to cut rates and, by EOY, increased their balance sheet) and a similar macroeconomic paradigm (people worried about recession after a huge growth in the markets). See how the logical answer that year was "NO to risky assets", making the total Crypto market drop, but most importantly, making ETH and especially ALTS, drop even more, falling in value against the king.
So, what can happen to BITCOIN, ETH, and ALTS in an election year, QT (quantitative tightening) cycle, Recession risk going up, and geopolitical threats to the economy?
All of this while the halving year goes on? Well, that's the right question to ask.
I forecast an ETH short-term meltdown to the 0.3-0.4 valuation against BTC in August and September. ALTCOINS may drop even harder!
what can cause this you ask?... Failed ETF launch, Mount Gox news, strong Democrats candidate, I guess we'll soon know.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.