Long

ETH/BTC - BTC first, ETH next?

Updated

BTC leads, the rest follows?

This is ETH against BTC, not USD!

So as long as BTC doesn't do a big dump, it sure looks like ETH might push next. With BTC being close to ATH and ETH still missing another 30% just to get to ATH (in USD), that does seem plausible enough.

Going by this projection though and assuming at least a stable BTC at the current levels (midterm), that would put ETH significantly higher in USD value from the current price of 3.7k.

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Followed the orange path so far:

Nice reaction there, though too early to call. Always a chance for another sweep of the lows.

ETH/USDT is looking interesting too though:

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Still the orange path, now with a hit of the lower channel bound (in log) right at the 61.8 retracement level.

Comes with some noteworthy bullish RSI divergence on the weekly.

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Beautiful starting move sending ETH from ~3k to ~3.7k

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ETH/BTC looks like a finished move that's currently correcting.

ETH/USDT, fibonacci channel:

A hold of 3.5k - 3.6k would look nice.

Also comes with the vegas wave on the 4h:

Nice hit of a pitchfork median too:

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Not much to add for the ETH/BTC chart:

Still looking good, correction could be done or give one lower low before going higher.

So while ETH held well against BTC, ETH/USDT did lose the geometry points shown in the last update.

Countwise, sticking to the bull cases for now (there's always a bear case...), we either made a deep wave 4 (or 1-2 1-2 if you want to be more bullish):

Alternatively we could be still working on some higher degree wave 4 (orange) or creating a diag wave 5 (green, too early to fixate on that):

Some geometry that held for now, 0.382 level of these fib channels (blue):

0.5 level of this channel and vegas wave on the daily:

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ETH/BTC followed the orange path (first image, last update) so far:

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This one became a bit more difficult to read now. The ETH/BTC chart made a new local low, but the overall view of a double zigzag correction still works. Calling the Y finished with confidence would certainly be difficult though. We did hit the lower channel in arithmetic view:

Staying below 0.0465 certainly puts some lower targets on the table (0.035 / 0.03):

While I'm not overly concerned with the BTC/USDT chart yet (I very much like where we held for now), the ETH/USDT chart became rather less pretty.

Where we bounced:

As for the count it's hard to ignore more bearish options now, like this:

Even assuming some kind of triangle wave 4, I still wouldn't be surprised if we went lower yet:

A count that still could lead at least close to ATH, if not above (whether as corrective or as a diag [ending or leading?]):

TophatPandaMagician

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