ETH/BTC - Long Term Top
Updated
Ethereum's ratio to Bitcoin has been consolidating for nearly 13 months (left). In 2018, Stellar Lumens (right) consolidated against Bitcoin for roughly 11 months before dropping off a cliff. Will the same happen to ETH here? It will need to maintain the uptrend, held since 2016. Any larger decline from here will result in a breakdown from this channel, which I think has pretty terrible implications for the 2nd largest cryptocurrency. A break ABOVE the channel would likely invalidate this bearish idea in the short term, and could result in a new all-time high for the ratio. Not sure this is likely. 
I believe ETH's value has been inflated by the NFT and DeFi bubbles, as seen by the immense premium speculators are willing to pay just to transfer tokens on the network (high fees). DeFi is really starting to look less and less appealing, as scandal after scandal has started to make waves across the cryptocurrency space, in an atmosphere that has already been quite negative. Right now, market participants are fleeing collapsing altcoins in favor of ETH, as can be seen by its increase on the ratio during market turmoil. But I think it's possible this does not last. XLM/BTC moved up momentarily right before Bitcoin collapsed in late 2018.
What more does ETH have going for it, aside from the merge, which is still a ways away? Still many have their coins locked away for staking, even as APY comes down on many platforms. I think people will be less and less willing to hold ETH, and that this period of consolidation will turn out to be distribution, leading to a precipitous decline. Ethereum has so far been unable to touch the previous all-time high against Bitcoin. If it breaks down before succeeding to do so, this would suggest that ETH is actually in a long term downtrend against Bitcoin (like most alts), and would have a hard time recovering on the ratio.
Many altcoins are in freefall against Bitcoin and ETH, yet Bitcoin dominance remains stable just below the 50 week MA.
If dominance breaks the 50 week, I think we can see the end of distribution for ETH.
On the upside, we would need to see the ratio head above 0.088 and sustain to consider a new all-time high. If this occurs, the entire market may also want to make a new all-time high. Since I think this is unlikely in the near-term, it also follows that I think a new ATH for ETH is also unlikely. Let's see what happens!
This is not meant as financial advice - this is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
I believe ETH's value has been inflated by the NFT and DeFi bubbles, as seen by the immense premium speculators are willing to pay just to transfer tokens on the network (high fees). DeFi is really starting to look less and less appealing, as scandal after scandal has started to make waves across the cryptocurrency space, in an atmosphere that has already been quite negative. Right now, market participants are fleeing collapsing altcoins in favor of ETH, as can be seen by its increase on the ratio during market turmoil. But I think it's possible this does not last. XLM/BTC moved up momentarily right before Bitcoin collapsed in late 2018.
What more does ETH have going for it, aside from the merge, which is still a ways away? Still many have their coins locked away for staking, even as APY comes down on many platforms. I think people will be less and less willing to hold ETH, and that this period of consolidation will turn out to be distribution, leading to a precipitous decline. Ethereum has so far been unable to touch the previous all-time high against Bitcoin. If it breaks down before succeeding to do so, this would suggest that ETH is actually in a long term downtrend against Bitcoin (like most alts), and would have a hard time recovering on the ratio.
Many altcoins are in freefall against Bitcoin and ETH, yet Bitcoin dominance remains stable just below the 50 week MA.
If dominance breaks the 50 week, I think we can see the end of distribution for ETH.
On the upside, we would need to see the ratio head above 0.088 and sustain to consider a new all-time high. If this occurs, the entire market may also want to make a new all-time high. Since I think this is unlikely in the near-term, it also follows that I think a new ATH for ETH is also unlikely. Let's see what happens!
This is not meant as financial advice - this is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Last chance here for ETH/BTC 
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