Crypto Warning - Major Decline or Final Bear Trap?
Updated
My biggest problem in this market right now is being unable to figure out whether this was a giant bull trap, poising us for another major decline, or if this potential drop will be the final bear trap before the bull market resumes. In this video, I present the bearish view, and why it's a strong possibility that we will see lower prices. IT DOES NOT HAVE TO HAPPEN. We could be on our way to a reversal. I'm just expressing my feelings of concern, and why Im feeling this way. Perhaps this means it's a good buying opportunity. Or...if we do drop quickly here, it could also be that final capitulation many people have been waiting for to end the bear market.
Things have not played out the way I would expect them to however, if the market was reversing right now. And much of that has to do with the performance of ETH, XRP, and XLM.
Additionally, a lot of altcoins have reached my bullish targets:
LTC to around $100 (expected retrace towards $50-60 at minumum)
XLM to $0.13-0.14
NEO to $13-14
NANO to $1.80
This idea is not financial advice. I'm just taking what I see and doing my best to analyze it. This is also the sort of psychology that would cause people to consider selling, due to risk aversion. If the market does drop here, this is the psychology behind it. It's a bit of a parody, but this explains the snowball effect, and why a speculative market like this is strongly influenced by psychology, rather than external news:
1. The market looks like it's reversing! Finally! We made it guys!!
2. But wait....why are my small cap coins crashing? Will they survive the bear market?? Better put my money in safer altcoins or Bitcoin.
3. Damn, my "safe" alts aren't doing anything. Maybe that wasn't the bottom after all! Better put all my money into Bitcoin, in case it takes over.
4. Why isn't Bitcoin going up either?? Wait...it's dropping...the whole market is dropping! Better sell everything! (Capitulation)
I will probably post a more detailed written analysis soon when I have more time.
-Victor Cobra
Things have not played out the way I would expect them to however, if the market was reversing right now. And much of that has to do with the performance of ETH, XRP, and XLM.
Additionally, a lot of altcoins have reached my bullish targets:
LTC to around $100 (expected retrace towards $50-60 at minumum)
XLM to $0.13-0.14
NEO to $13-14
NANO to $1.80
This idea is not financial advice. I'm just taking what I see and doing my best to analyze it. This is also the sort of psychology that would cause people to consider selling, due to risk aversion. If the market does drop here, this is the psychology behind it. It's a bit of a parody, but this explains the snowball effect, and why a speculative market like this is strongly influenced by psychology, rather than external news:
1. The market looks like it's reversing! Finally! We made it guys!!
2. But wait....why are my small cap coins crashing? Will they survive the bear market?? Better put my money in safer altcoins or Bitcoin.
3. Damn, my "safe" alts aren't doing anything. Maybe that wasn't the bottom after all! Better put all my money into Bitcoin, in case it takes over.
4. Why isn't Bitcoin going up either?? Wait...it's dropping...the whole market is dropping! Better sell everything! (Capitulation)
I will probably post a more detailed written analysis soon when I have more time.
-Victor Cobra
Note
The pink shows a potential bullish scenario. This would be more in line with what happened after the dotcom bubble, and more what I've been expecting for the market until recently. If that light blue trendline is broken, it wouldn't be good: Note
In my opinion, we need to see some major buying soon in some of these altcoins for the market to look healthily bullish.Note
As mentioned above, the risk aversion snowball effect started with low caps. This includes ENG, GVT, etc. If those two start to increase again, the risk aversion may start to evaporate. This is what I'd be looking for if the market is to continue to look bullish.
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