Long

Continued Upside For ETH/BTC Possible

Updated

I've shied away from doing altcoin setups recently, particularly on lower-mid caps. But I did make an effort to call the bottom for the ETH/BTC ratio this past summer. I was slightly early, but it did ultimately bounce from those levels and has yet to return there. Here it is:

I've shown the daily chart on the left and the hourly chart on the right. I'm seeing unusually large buy volume with long wicks for ETH/BTC on Binance. Large quantities are being purchased here, for whatever reason - regardless of where the overall market is headed. On the left, you can see that if we break out of consolidation here, ETH can test the medium term downtrend and then the long term downtrend (green X's). A break back into the bearish channel on the hourly timeframe would likely invalidate this setup. It's important to note that we do indeed have a bullish cross (50d MA over 100d MA). Perhaps a more obvious test of the 100d MA (purple) needs to happen before another move up. If that moving average fails, that would also invalidate this bullish setup.

This is not financial advice. Just wanted to post this for future reference to see if it plays out. At least some volatility is back, am I right?

-Victor Cobra

Note

Looking at the ETH/USD chart, we see that the same horizontal support has held, despite Bitcoin dropping through horizontal support. We can also observe declining sell volume on longer and shorter timeframes (at the bottom of this chart). The bullish possibility is not entirely out of the picture. Yes, the long term trends have been violated, but that doesn't mean the market can't find demand and create a new trend or try to reclaim the broken trend.

Note

For volume analysis to look bullish in the above picture, we'd need buy volume to come in and eclipse sell volume. Even though volume overall is decreasing, sell volume has outshined buy volume over the last couple of weeks. We need that to change to confirm any sort of reversal back tot he upside.

Note

Here's some hopium for long term ETH bulls. A while ago, I speculated about a potential bottoming fractal for ETH/BTC. I made multiple posts about it, but the timeframe was incorrect, and the ratio headed to new lows. HOWEVER, the similarities here are fairly noticeable. Of course, when comparing fractals, it's important to recognize that bias plays a major role in the analysis. I thought I'd post it for fun anyway.

Note

Even though Ethereum/BTC failed to follow through to the upside initially, we have some encouraging signals on the daily chart, as long as we close at or near current levels. We could be seeing seller exhaustion in the form of a potential "mini" morning star candle formation. We had a large morning star reversal play out last week on Bitcoin and most altcoins (circled on the left)

Note

One can assume some seller exhaustion when sell volume declines with the trend weakening.

Note

ETH/BTC didn't reverse back up as quickly as some other alts did, but I still think it's possible we see higher prices than when I originally posted this analysis. If we can continue hold here (and particularly tackle major USD resistance), we should be good for a fairly large move up.

Note

We're almost right back to where we started. Here's my recent update and longer term analysis:

VictorCobra

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