Is Ethereum (ETH) About To Break The 2 Year Long Downtrend?
Updated
I've decided to post a new ETHBTC analysis because things are looking very interesting (and exciting). For the first time since the breakdown below 6K, I've been feeling cautiously bullish on the whole market, especially since following the price action on Litecoin. Right as we speak, ETH is just poking out of this incredibly long resistance. IF we break out here, I think it'll be a lot more powerful than people are expecting, and the whole market would likely move up with it. As you can see, we would also be completing an enormous inverse head and shoulders pattern (seen on the weekly RSI as well). This sort of reversal can send us even to new highs on the Bitcoin ratio. Just look at the log chart:
And the daily linear chart:
On the hourly chart, it looks like we're breaking out of a bull flag:
Anyway, that's it for this analysis. I think if ETH breaks out here (just as Litecoin broke its downtrend channel), it would nearly confirm that the bear market is over. I know it may be a little premature, but I'm just curious to see how this plays out. Additionally, I speculated back in November that January/February 2019 would be the earliest end to the bear market. However, caution is still always needed. It's possible that we have a fake breakout and head to new lows, since anything can happen in this market. Bitcoin is struggling a little bit to hold current levels, but it seems that bears are indeed starting to get exhausted. To me, many alts really seem like they're forming solid bottoms with clear accumulation. REMEMBER, we are at a major 2 year long resistance, so a drop is possible as well!
This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional. I just enjoy this market and analyzing it. Full disclosure, I bought Litecoin at $32 and ETH at $107 recently. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll see.
-Victor Cobra
And the daily linear chart:
On the hourly chart, it looks like we're breaking out of a bull flag:
Anyway, that's it for this analysis. I think if ETH breaks out here (just as Litecoin broke its downtrend channel), it would nearly confirm that the bear market is over. I know it may be a little premature, but I'm just curious to see how this plays out. Additionally, I speculated back in November that January/February 2019 would be the earliest end to the bear market. However, caution is still always needed. It's possible that we have a fake breakout and head to new lows, since anything can happen in this market. Bitcoin is struggling a little bit to hold current levels, but it seems that bears are indeed starting to get exhausted. To me, many alts really seem like they're forming solid bottoms with clear accumulation. REMEMBER, we are at a major 2 year long resistance, so a drop is possible as well!
This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional. I just enjoy this market and analyzing it. Full disclosure, I bought Litecoin at $32 and ETH at $107 recently. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll see.
-Victor Cobra
Note
REMEMBER, we are indeed at a major resistance area, so a big drop is possible as well! Let's see how it plays out. We'll likely know within the next day or so.Note
Bitcoin is indeed starting to not look bullish anymore, but alts are telling a different story. It’s looking increasingly likely that this idea will be invalidated for now, but maybe bulls can make a surprise move soon.Note
Very interesting moves by the market! This idea is still in play, as many alts are continuing to look bullish. Even NANO is back above support and climbing, while NEO is finally looking bullish as well. Despite many people still being bearish, we might indeed be about to witness a major breakout.Note
Close to a true breakout here. Let's see who wins, bulls or bears. We've really held this area quite well, so I'm leaning towards the bullish view. Note
We're also in what appears to be a bullish ascending triangle. Forming this pattern against such a major resistance is a good indication that the market REALLY wants to break out here. Of course, it may not happen, but the odds are in favor of the bulls, I think. Note
Aaaand the ascending triangle broke to the upside with a pretty huge move. Note
We might end up consolidating here for a bit, since the purple line is a pretty major pivot/resistance area.Note
Broke up again today, but we've stalled around the $160 area, even though we technically shouldn't have much resistance here on the Bitcoin chart. It's nice to see that we're building a flat here though. Bulls need to keep the volume up and make some big buys soon to see this thing really fly up. Interestingly, we are sitting basically right at the 200EMA, which was breached right before the test of the red trendline in March 2017 - roughly two years ago. If this fractal is to play out, this is where we are: Note
Present day: Note
The two major differences between 2017 and 2019 are 1) scale - the present day bottom has taken 2 months longer to form.
2) We've tested the red trendline twice already as resistance in 2019, whereas we only tested it as resistance once in 2017.
Interesting to note that the potential conclusion of the bottoming formation will occur at exactly the same time of year, if this plays out.
Note
It looks like we're following the fractal still, but we were in a different part than I originally thought. For this to play out, we'd need to see something like this. Of course, we can bounce now (the ultimate oscillator is showing that we may be in a buying zone). We also have support down between 29000 and 31000. 
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.