$ETHBTC: Long term buy zone and monthly trends
Updated
Ethereum vs Bitcoin has entered a yearly scale buy zone for a while now, there is also a quarterly range expansion bar buy zone to enter longs on retrace that is active around these parts...
These levels give actionable support areas to consider for potential reversals of the trend, together with low volume gaps in the volume distribution for the uptrend leg which I plotted in light green.
Timemode trend has been down in monthly scale for a while now, as I reported in my publication in related ideas, but it will eventually mean revert and reverse the recent decline in my opinion, given long term prospects for Ethereum being solid with the adoption of Eigenlayer and growth in the staking and DeFi markets that will come with it, as well as the prospect of an upcoming ETF for Ether, likely being approved by May or June.
There is one 13 months down trend that expires by the end of March and aims for 0.04171, and another signal that popped later on, which predicts a 14 month decline starting from June 2023, and extending until July 2024, with a target @ 0.03976 BTC per ETH.
Once these signals pan out, we can expect a mean reversion or reversal leg which will cause a move back to the start of the declines (circa 0.069-0.0720 at least, by March 2025, to August 2025, the latest...these moves could take less time to materialize as well, and lead to a full scale reversal and uptrend if Ethereum does outperform Bitcoin long term again. I'm not too sure of this, and rather expect mean reversion and volatile sideways action in the ratio.
We will know more soon enough, but it is possible the ETF approval triggers the last part of this bearish forecast to materialize quickly before reversing over time.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
These levels give actionable support areas to consider for potential reversals of the trend, together with low volume gaps in the volume distribution for the uptrend leg which I plotted in light green.
Timemode trend has been down in monthly scale for a while now, as I reported in my publication in related ideas, but it will eventually mean revert and reverse the recent decline in my opinion, given long term prospects for Ethereum being solid with the adoption of Eigenlayer and growth in the staking and DeFi markets that will come with it, as well as the prospect of an upcoming ETF for Ether, likely being approved by May or June.
There is one 13 months down trend that expires by the end of March and aims for 0.04171, and another signal that popped later on, which predicts a 14 month decline starting from June 2023, and extending until July 2024, with a target @ 0.03976 BTC per ETH.
Once these signals pan out, we can expect a mean reversion or reversal leg which will cause a move back to the start of the declines (circa 0.069-0.0720 at least, by March 2025, to August 2025, the latest...these moves could take less time to materialize as well, and lead to a full scale reversal and uptrend if Ethereum does outperform Bitcoin long term again. I'm not too sure of this, and rather expect mean reversion and volatile sideways action in the ratio.
We will know more soon enough, but it is possible the ETF approval triggers the last part of this bearish forecast to materialize quickly before reversing over time.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Note
Note
I think this will start to materialize, now that people are aware of what to expect from the Eigenlayer airdrop due to points being tradeable, it might start to boost Ethereum demand.
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